Tanner Houck's cap has been 6.0 innings over his last 16 starts...

I'm going on HQ to discuss this pick in a bit. The more I look at it, the more I like it. Kyle Freeland has had success against this current Phillies lineup, holding them to a .189 average and recording 38 strikeouts in 122 career at-bats. The last three times Freeland faced the Phillies, he struck out 8, 6 and 7. Freeland looked strong in his first start of the season vs. Tampa Bay, pitching six scoreless innings and striking out seven. I make this closer to -135 at 4.5.

Landen Roupp vs. Framber Valdez. Roupp got four starts last September and allowed two runs or fewer in three of them. He won the Giants' final rotation spot with a strong spring. Valdez dominated in his first outing of the season vs. the Mets, allowing just four hits over 7 scoreless innings. Houston has played five games this year with all but one totaling four runs or less. I'll take the F5 under 4.5.

I like Gore over 5.5 strikeouts at plus money. Going back to last September, Gore has at least nine K's in three straight starts. He was close to untouchable in the opener against the Phillies, pitching six scoreless innings and striking out 13. Gore has pitched at least six innings in seven of his last eight starts. If we get six innings on Wednesday, I like Gore's chances of going over 5.5 strikeouts.

Ronel Blanco vs. Jordan Hicks. Houston started the season with three straight unders against the Mets in games that totaled four, four and three runs. That trend will obviously end at some point but it may not be Monday with Blanco on the mound. Blanco gave up just 6.1 hits per 9 innings last season, best in MLB. Hicks started off strong last season but the former reliever wore down over the second half. With his arm fresh, I think the Houston native can contain an Astros offense that has started the year off slowly.

Nick Pivetta vs. AJ Smith-Shawver. Pivetta looked good in spring training after signing with the Padres. He's had success against the current Braves lineup, holding them to a .222 average .279 OBP in 135 career at-bats. Smith-Shawver got roughed up in the Wild Card game vs. the Padres but that was a young pitcher making an emergency start. He looked really good this spring and should be more comfortable this time around.

Jacob deGrom vs. Richard Fitts. I expect a big bounce back season from deGrom. It's one of the reasons I am so high on Texas in the AL. Fitts is a young pitcher with nasty stuff. He started four games for Boston last season and didn't allow an earned run in three of them. I like a lower scoring game here but will take the bullpens out of the equation and go under 4.5 for the F5.

The offenses haven't gotten going yet with the Sox and Rangers combining for seven and five runs in the first two games of the series. That could change on Saturday. Walker Buehler goes for Boston and I'm not 100% sold on him after struggling last year before turning it on in the playoffs. Tyler Mahle is on the bump for Texas. Mahle has battled constant injuries and hasn't started more than five games since 2022. I think both teams could be going to the bullpen early and playing for the third straight day, we might run into some tired arms. I'll back the over 9 runs at plus money.

I'm taking the Cubs in the first 5 innings here. I think they are a little ahead of the curve with two games under their belt. Justin Steele has a 1.00 ERA with 25 strikeouts in his last 18 innings vs. Arizona and while the D'Backs have some new faces, they hit just .217 against lefties last season. I like the Cubs to get out to a fast start after dropping both games to the Dodgers in Tokyo.

I'm higher on the Reds than most to start the season. I bet Cincinnati over 78.5 wins and took the Reds +650 (DK) to win the NL Central. It's early in the year, so anything can happen, although I'm trying to get ahead of the market on Hunter Greene. Opponents hit just .179 vs. Greene last season and I think he is a sleeper Cy Young candidate in the NL. I'm also not high on the Giants, a team I believe is going through a rebuild. I'll lay the short number with Greene in the Reds' home opener.

I'm all over Crochet this year. He has nasty stuff and I like backing pitchers who have a good cutter early in the year while many hitters are still rounding onto form. Crochet's 12.9 strikeouts per nine innings pitched would’ve been the best in baseball last season if he threw enough innings to qualify, but the White Sox load managed him later in the year. He also had 30 strikeouts in 15 2/3 innings in spring training. Over 6.5 is a little juicy at -150 but I think that price will go up closer to Thursday.