Golden State has played extremely successful at home this postseason. The Dubs have covered in seven of their nine games as home favorites. The Celtics have failed to cover in three consecutive Game 1's while losing two of those contests by double-digits. I'll roll with the Warriors here until Boston proves it can rise to the occasion and not start the series slow.

Boston has limited opposing teams to 101 points per game this postseason and held Golden State to 99.5 points per game during the regular season. The Warriors have score an impressive 118 points per game at home during their title run, though. Four straight NBA Finals games have tallied at least 214 points and I think that trend will continue as these two teams look to figure each other out.

The Heat and Celtics are dealing with injury problems ahead of Game 3. Tyler Herro has been ruled out for Miami, while Marcus Smart and Robert Williams are questionable. Kyle Lowry's return made all the difference for Miami on defense in Game 2, and the visitors can stay close if one of both of the Celtics' defensive anchors are ruled out. Miami's only lost two road games by more than seven points when Lowry, Jimmy Butler, and Bam Adebayo are active this season.

The Mavericks are down 0-2 in the Western Conference Finals and their stellar home defense could help them climb back into the series. They're allowing less than 94 points per game at the American Airlines Center this postseason. No total has gone over 214 at the venue so far. I like the Mavericks' odds to limit the visitors on offense after blowing a big lead on Friday.

The Heat and Celtics are both elite defensive teams, but each side each side has put on an impressive offensive display in the series so far. The average total is 227 points and 10 players are averaging at least 10 points per game in the series. I'm taking the over on any total below 210 until Boston and Miami cancel each other out.

Marcus Smart and Al Horford have been ruled out of Tuesday's game, and that should give the Heat a significant advantage. While the home team won't have Kyle Lowry, the absence of Boston's top playmaker and rebounder is more impactful. If you combine those factors with the fact the Robert Williams will have to hold down Bam Adebayo after missing four games, Miami seems like the easy choice against the spread.

The Warriors edged out the Ja Morant-less Grizzlies by three points on Monday, but Jordan Poole, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green combined for 30 points on 32.3 percent shooting. The Dubs' sharpshooters should bounce back with a chance to finish Memphis. Steph Curry boasts career playoff averages of 28.7 points, 7.0 assists, and 5.6 assists in closeout games. I expect his dominance to open things up for his teammates and help the visitors cover.

Miami is up 2-0 ahead of Friday's second-round matchup against the 76ers and could get better on both ends ahead of the weekend. Kyle Lowry is traveling with the team two weeks after tweaking his hamstring. The visitors should cover if their starting point guard is serviceable for a team that's already secured back-to-back double-digit wins. I like Miami's odds to cover without Lowry, so any shot at a return to the hardwood makes me love the Heat against the spread.

The 76ers and Heat met four times during the regular season and averaged 201 points per game. Both sides are missing key defensive pieces ahead of Monday's matchup in Joel Embiid and Kyle Lowry, so quality looks should be easier to come by for both teams. Philly gave up 110.7 points per game without Embiid during the regular season while Miami forked up 106.1 points per contests without Lowry. I'll take the over.

The Nuggets got blown out in their first two road games against the Warriors in the 2022 NBA Playoffs. However, the total went over 230 points in both contests. Denver and Golden State only failed to combine for less than 225 points once in the series. The Dubs are reportedly considering starting their most lethal offensive lineup for Game 5 with Steph Curry, Jordan Poole, Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins, and Draymond Green. I expect a fast-paced barn burner regardless of what team comes out on top.

This series hasn't totaled 215 points in a game yet and the Bulls won't have two key pieces in Game 5. Zach LaVine (health and safety protocols) and Alex Caruso (concussion protocols) have been ruled out. I don't think their replacements will match their scoring stats against a team that's giving up 94 points per game so far this postseason. Milwaukee should win by double-digits in anther low-scoring contest.

The Nuggets fell short at the Chase Center over the weekend, but have had plenty of success there this year. Denver kicked off the season series with a pair of road wins against the Warriors. Jokic averaged 28.5 points, 18 rebounds, and 6.5 assists in those matchups. Both games were decided by four points or less and the Nuggets should make adjustments following Game 1.

The Celtics are undefeated (3-0) against the Nets this year, but I think they'll fall short in Game 1 on Sunday. Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving didn't play in either of the first two Boston-Brooklyn pairings of the season and the Nets fell short by six in the third matchup of the season. Both of them are healthy now and the home team will be missing a key defensive piece in Robert Williams. Boston's weakened rim protection and switchability will help Brooklyn pull off an upset.

Paul George has been ruled out for Friday's game following a positive COVID-19 test. The Pelicans won their first three matchups against the Clippers this season and secured a 24-point victory in the lone Los Angeles-New Orleans pairing that PG13 didn't appear in. The Clippers' poor interior defense isn't equipped to stop Jonas Valanciunas and won't have its best perimeter defender to deploy against CJ McCollum and Brandon Ingram. I'm rolling with the road favorites here.

Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving seem poised to fill it up, but I'm not confident that Cleveland can keep up on offense at the Barclays Center without its starting center. Cleveland is averaging just 106 points per games in road games (12) without Jarrett Allen. The Cavs scored 105 points or less in seven of those contests. The total has also fallen short of 226 in all three of Cleveland's losses to Brooklyn this year. I expect this game's slower, playoff pace to keep the score on the lower end down the stretch.