The Brewers play their first home game without Bob Uecker. ...

Brady Singer makes his Reds debut on Monday. ...

Tyler Glasnow makes his season debut for the Dodgers. ...

The Padres just saw young Atlanta starting pitcher AJ Smith-Shawver in last year's Wild-Card Series and hit him around for three runs and four hits in just 1.1 innings. It's the Padres debut for Nick Pivetta, usually a solid righty who looked good this spring with a 0.98 WHIP in 13.1 innings. Still sans Ronald Acuna Jr. the Braves have totaled only seven runs in the three losses out West and are hitting .177 with a .288 OBP. Manny Machado is in the SD lineup as there was some question about an injury. Probably would have passed if he was out.

Two very good young pitchers in JP Sears and Bryan Woo (0.89 ERA vs. A's last year in three starts), and both the A's and Mariners have good bullpens and not great lineups in a pitchers' park. First three games in the series: 6, 7 and 6 runs scored. The 7.5s are starting to disappear ....

I would like to play +1 but not offered among our options. This obviously is not one I recommend not to bat in the bottom of the ninth. And there is only one reason really why I am playing it: All-Star Guardians (hey I didn't almost say Indians! only took 2 years) third baseman Jose Ramirez, easily the team's best hitter and perhaps Top 5 in MLB for all he does for his club, is almost surely out after hurting his wrist Saturday. Playoff game maybe he's in there, but March 30 would be truly stupid on the organization's part.

I'm taking almost any player in the major leagues (a few circumstances where I wouldn't; wind blowing out in Colorado or Luis Arraez facing some journeyman pitcher, stuff along those lines) when offered Under 1.5 hits at a price at less than -200. Bohm has had two hits in each of the first two games and yeah this may lose, but the math says we have to. Don't really look at models for hit props, but ours has Bohm at 1.07.

Solid chance that All-Stars Trea Turner and JT Realmuto are out for the Phils today; almost surely Realmuto will be sitting after leaving Saturday, while Turner missed that one. Why push it when you have already won a road series and your home opener is Monday when you know both guys want to be out there? It's the season debut for Nats starter Mitchell Parker, who had a 2.65 ERA at home last year compared to 6.61 away.

We haven't lost on an Over 14.5 outs play yet, I don't believe -- which means this just got doomed -- and the winds are blowing in at Yankee Stadium today after yesterday's very entertaining slugfest with the winds howling out. Marcus Stroman got up to 70 pitches in his final spring training start so you'd think 80 is reasonable today, and that should be enough to get through five barring getting rocked or wild. No Brewers have great splits off him. Our model has Stroman at 5.2 innings.

Apologies for slightly late but I thought this started at 10:10 ET and I was watching Florida NOT ruin my bracket with a great comeback Now that this has dipped under -200, think that's almost an auto-play in LA at home -- again, Dodgers don't bat B9 or -1 are great and preferred alternatives. Sure looks like a pitching mismatch between Reese Olson and Roki Sasaki. And the Tigers are without Gleyber Torres.

Really the same deal as yesterday in this game when we won on the same prop on Miami's Connor Gillispie: Not really about the pitcher but about the lineup he is facing. And, like I will say often, a manager WANTS to let his starter qualify for W if at all possible -- obviously openers aside. Kinda doubt the Fish shell Falter even if he's not great, so this should be a pitch count thing.

Rays -1 would be preferable, but this is acceptable now that it dropped about 25 cents. Colorado starting pitcher Antonio Senzatela is simply not good, never once in his eight seasons (not counting the COVID year) finishing with an ERA better than 4.38 -- and his career road splits are better (but still bad) than at hitter-friendly Coors Field. This is what the Rockies have become due to terrible, non-spending ownership. On the flip side, no one mines pitching better than the Rays, who have turned former reliever Zack Littell into a very competent starter his two seasons with Tampa Bay. Only a handful of Rockies have seen him and none with good splits.

The wind apparently will be howling out at Yankee Stadium today, and I thought about an Aaron Judge homer prop but would be so irked if he laced one off the top of the left-field wall or something and settled for a double and I didn't play this instead. Judge surely has faced Brewers starter and former teammate Nestor Cortes plenty in BP, etc. AJ did double in the opener.

Yankees to not bat in B9 is a cheaper option but this isn't bad so will play it straight as I think it's a shade low with new Yanks ace Max Fried on the mound. One thing about playing B9 on a home team that I brought up to my friend Ed from SFLA on our Discord Channel is that you will get bitten once in a while (Rays) but still long-term value. Sign up for our SL Discord channel, it's so great. Some truly hilarious and betting insightful people out there like Joe from Cali, CJP, Chuck D., Joeycanna and more wish I could list. If any team knows how to hit MIL's Nestor Cortes, it should be NYY.

Despite losing the opener last night to the Cubbies (Miguel Amaya!), whose fans fill half the stadium in Arizona where they have spring training, I believe the Snakes might be the second-best team in all of baseball. Liked the Josh Naylor addition and I picked Corbin Carroll for NL MVP (value wise). Merrill Kelly starts on the hill tonight and is usually excellent in his home park. No key Cubs have great splits off him. Don't think much of Chicago starting pitcher Jameson Taillon, who was significantly worse away in 2024 and not good this spring.