
Larry's Past Picks
This line is 22.5 at most books, and I'm fine playing it there too. Kawhi Leonard has scored at least 23 points in seven straight games, shooting at least 50 percent from the field in each. This month he's averaging 25.1 points in 36.8 minutes per game. In the previous meeting with Brooklyn, a Clippers' blowout win, Leonard scored 23 points in 24 minutes. The Nets rank 20th in defensive rating and just gave up 120 points at home to Dallas.
Memphis shot 53.1 percent in blowing out Utah on Tuesday, so there weren't a lot of defensive rebounds for the Jazz to collect. I'm expecting the Grizzlies to have a much tougher time converting against OKC, on the final game of their five-game trip. Isaiah Hartenstein collected 14 rebounds in his last matchup with Memphis, nine in the one before. He has recorded double-digit rebounds in five straight overall entering Thursday. This game will be played fast -- both teams are Top 8 in pace -- giving us the extra possessions we need. Memphis has given up the 10th-most rebounds (52.9 per game).
Kawhi Leonard has been a different player after the All-Star Break, averaging 24.0 points compared to 16.3 before. He's playing way more minutes and his efficiency has improved. This month, Leonard is averaging 24.9 points. James Harden rolled his foot Sunday against the Thunder and was seen limping badly afteward. He's officially questionable. If Harden ends up sitting, Leonard's usage would only increase. Either way I like Leonard -- who has played 40 minutes three times this month -- to score at least 23 in Madison Square Garden. It doesn't hurt that New York is playing the second night of a back-to-back.
Over their last three games, the Heat are allowing opponents to shoot 40 percent from deep. Now they host the Warriors in the Jimmy Butler revenge game. Steph Curry (pelvic contusion) is questionable. Either way, I like Podziemski to make at least two 3-pointers. He has started the past 12 games in which he's been healthy and is shooting 42.9 percent from deep this month. Since returning from a minor back injury three games ago, the Santa Clara product is 12 of 22 from deep. Not counting the game in which he got hurt and left after one minute, Podziemski cleared this prop total in nine of his last 11 games.
Second-year forward Ryan Dunn is set to make his sixth straight start for the Suns, who have won three in a row and are tied for the 10th seed. In his last five games, Dunn has scored in double digits every time, averaging 14.4. He's an excellent finisher who's earning the trust of Devin Booker and Kevin Durant. Dunn has made at least two treys in each of those starts. He's also a defensive whiz, so his minutes are fairly consistent. Bradley Beal will miss his fourth straight game, meaning the Suns need to look for offense beyond Durant and Booker. Back Dunn to keep doing what's he's doing in an important matchup against Mike Budenholzer's former team.
Jerami Grant is doubtful, while Donovan Clingan and Anfernee Simons are questionable. And of course, Deandre Ayton and Robert Williams are out. Blazers forward Deni Avdija has been on a tear lately and he'll need to be active on the glass versus Boston. He only played 23 minutes on March 5 in Boston, grabbing six rebounds. But he's averaging 10.1 rebounds this month and has played 34-plus minutes in five of the past six games.
Coby White has registered at least four assists in five straight games, and Thursday's matchup sets up well. We have two fast-paced teams, the highest total of the night at 234, and Sacramento gives up the 10th-most assists (27.0 per game). White is averaging 35.9 minutes this month. I know it's juicy, but I bet White to continue if not increase his recent assist production.
LeBron James remains out with a groin injury. The Nuggets give up the most assists in the NBA (29.2 per game). Over the past three games, they've yielded an average of 30. When James is out, Austin Reaves steps up his playmaking, even with Luka Doncic on the floor. The Lakers have played five games since James went down, and Reaves has dished out 38 assists (7.6 per game). Last Friday in Denver, Reaves had 13 assists in 39 minutes.
Ja Morant is out, so Desmond Bane's usage should spike again versus Sacramento. It's a dream matchup, too, as the Kings rank 19th in defensive rating and allow an NBA-high 38.3 percent on 3-pointers. We have a game total of 237 with a fast pace expected. Look for Bane to play around 35 minutes and clear this prop total.
With Deandre Ayton (quad strain) still out, Donovan Clingan has started 13 straight games. He has played 34 and 32 minutes in his last two contests, and has cleared this prop total in four straight. The Raptors give up the sixth-most rebounds and second-most assists to opposing centers. In the 14 games in which Clingan played at least 22 minutes, he went Over this number 12 times.
The Bulls are dealing with multiple backcourt injuries, providing opportunity for Kevin Huerter. He's averaged 8.75 3-point attempts in his last eight games, clearing this prop total all but once. The Nets allow the sixth-best 3-point percentage (36.8).
Jalen Williams left with a hip injury in the first half against Denver on Monday. Cason Wallace started the second half in his place and finished with 12 points and eight assists in 29 minutes. It was the fourth straight time Wallace dished out 4-plus assists when getting 28-plus minutes. Even if Wallace doesn't start, I like him to play big minutes and record at least three assists.
Thunder forward Jalen Williams dished out eight assists in Sunday's win over the Nuggets, and I bet him to record at least six assists in Monday's rematch. The Nuggets give up the most assists in the NBA (29.1) -- a number that rises slightly on the road -- and could be without one of their best defenders in Aaron Gordon (calf). Williams has cleared this prop total in six of nine games since the All-Star Break. That includes four games in which Williams has tallied eight or nine dimes. Williams also had nine assists in a November game at Denver.
OG Anunoby is dealing with a sprained left thumb and is questionable. When he's off the court, Mikal Bridges sees an uptick in usage and rebounding. Bridges has grabbed four rebounds in consecutive games and likely will play 35-plus minutes Thursday. The Lakers, who won't have 6-8 Rui Hachimura, give up the 10th-most rebounds to opposing small forwards.
The Cavs rested Evan Mobley on Tuesday against Chicago, so he should get a healthy workload Wednesday vs. Miami. Kenny Atkinson knows Cleveland has a brutal March schedule (10 of 16 games on the road), so it's possible he rests another core player against the Heat. Cleveland owns an eight-game lead over Boston for the East's top seed. The Cavs have faced Miami twice this season. In the first matchup, Mobley sprained his ankle and left after 12 minutes. On Jan. 29 in Miami, Mobley went off for 22 points, 15 rebounds and two assists in 31 minutes.