Prop's Picks (1 Live)
Prop's Past Picks
DraftKings. When playing alongside Paolo Banchero this season, Franz Wagner is averaging 32.3 combined points, rebounds and assists, and has stayed under this number in 17/27 games. And within that subset, against teams in the top 15 of defensive rating, Wagner has failed to clear this line in 9/11 games. The Timberwolves rank 6th in that department, and have Rudy Gobert back to playing 30+ minutes. Coming off a quick turnaround after playing in New Orleans last night, I see this line has being 2-3 PRA too high for Franz.
DraftKings. Malik Monk has failed to clear this number in 10/12 games since Zach LaVine joined the team, including both games without Domantas Sabonis. The matchup against the Warriors is not ideal either, as Golden State ranks fifth against pick and roll ball-handlers, and allow the second fewest PRA overall to opposing point guards. Would play this down to under 28.5 PRA.
Caesar’s. Trey Murphy has been one of the rare constants for the injury-ravaged Pelicans at this stage of the season. He’s been excellent, averaging a career-high 30.6 combined points, rebounds and assists, but I’m looking to fade him on his 30.5 PRA line. The Magic are a brutal matchup for his play style - they are the best team at preventing points against spot up shooters and above-the-break threes. And their snail’s pace has them allowing the fewest assists and third fewest rebounds. Murphy is only under this line in 7/14 with Zion Williamson and CJ McCollum (and without Dejounte Murray and Brandon Ingram). But this is a matchup much better suited for CJ and Zion. I’d play this down to under 29.5.
Caesar’s. Without LeBron James and Jaxson Hayes available, the Lakers will need to rely on their non-bigs to help crash the boards. Austin Reaves has been doing that all season, as he’s cleared this line in each of the four games he’s played without LeBron. Reaves is averaging 5.9 rebounds per 36 minutes without both James and Anthony Davis on the court. Yes, Luka Doncic is a good rebounder, but this matchup should suit Reaves as well. The Bucks allow the second most rebounds overall to guards/wings. Reaves is coming off an eight-rebound effort against the Nets - I have him clearing 4.5 with ease against Milwaukee.
DraftKings (-120). It’s hard to flesh out the Thunder role players, but the options are narrowed down with Jalen Williams out. Cason Wallace has been a reliable player for the Thunder, and has cleared this line in 15 of his last 20 games with just 22 minutes played. Against the Nuggets, Wallace replaced Williams in the starting lineup coming out of halftime, and I do think he’ll get the nod again today. Even if he doesn’t start, there’s enough usage left on the table without Williams for Wallace to clear this line.
FanDuel. Derrick Jones Jr.’s role has shifted a bit as he’s moved to the bench, but this is still a low line for him. Jones Jr. has cleared this number in 10/11 games playing between less than 27 minutes alongside both James Harden and Kawhi Leonard this season. With Norman Powell still sidelined, there are spot-up and transition opportunities to go around. And it’s a fantastic opponent for Jones, who scores 63% of his points via those playtypes - the Pels rank in the bottom four defensively against each.
FanDuel. Let’s run it back with Josh Giddey, who is now over this point plateau in each of his last eight games. Overall, he’s cleared this line in 11 of the last 13 games without Zach LaVine, when playing at least 30 minutes. And with Ayo Donsunmu and Lonzo Ball (doubtful) both slated to miss this game, I like Giddey to continue on his recent run of playing at least 34 regulation minutes in five straight games. Yes, Nikola Vucevic (questionable) could return, but the Bulls have had solid center production from Zach Collins of late. This should be another nice spot for Giddey who recently cleared this line against the Pacers despite a poor shooting performance (5/15).
FanDuel. Dalton Knecht gets the starting nod for the depleted Lakers on Monday. Going up against the Nets, it’s an excellent matchup against a trapping defense that ranks 27th against both spot-up shooters and transition points. Knecht has cleared this line in 8/11 games with 28+ minutes played.
DraftKings. Ok at under 23.5 as well. Coming off a strong performance against a depleted Sixers squad, I’m looking to fade Isaiah Collier in a much tougher spot against the Celtics. Boston is allowing the sixth fewest PRA to opposing point guards this season, and Collier is under this line in 10/16 when playing against teams in the top 15. I do also think there is a good chance we see at least one of Collin Sexton or Jordan Clarkson tonight - but even if the Jazz continue to withhold their veterans, this is a tough spot for Collier. The Celtics will make you beat them one-on-one in the half court, and Collier is in the 7th percentile of efficiency in the pick and roll.
B365 @ -115. Also playable at over 10.5 points + rebounds. Just another low line for Jake LaRavia. The Kings will once again be without both Domantas Sabonis and Malik Monk, meaning LaRavia should be in line for 26-28 minutes off the bench. In just 22+ minutes this season, he’s cleared this line in a whopping 24/27 games. His usage has maintained since he joined the Kings (as compared to his time with the Grizzlies).
DraftKings. Coming off a foul-plagued performance against Golden State, I love this as a rebound spot for Ausar Thompson. He has cleared this line in each of his last eight games against teams in the bottom half of the NBA at preventing transition points (his preferred playtype). Portland fits that subset as they are 24th against transition. Coach Bickerstaff recently mentioned that Thompson is off his minutes restriction as well - I’d expect 30+ minutes presuming he can avoid foul trouble.
Analysis to come.
DraftKings. Let’s continue to ride the wave with Nikola Jokic, who has cleared his rebounding prop line in eight of his last nine games. Averaging 12.9 rebounds per game this season, he’s acquitted himself very well in above average matchups. Against teams ranking in the bottom half of the NBA in rebounds allowed to opposing centers, Jokic has cleared this line in 21/31 games. The Thunder are 23rd in that department.
FanDuel. Josh Giddey has been excellent for the Bulls of late. He’s cleared this line in 11/L13, including each of the last 8 games. Assuming a bigger role with Zach LaVine shipped off to Sacramento, Giddey has also had to pick up the slack with Nikola Vucevic (doubtful), Ayo Donsunmu and Lonzo Ball (doubtful) all sidelined. Giddey’s rotation is now up to 34+ minutes, a deviation from the 26-28 earlier this season. He notched 24 points a month ago against the Heat (with Vucevic).