It is no coincidence that Pitt dropped its last five games outright after a 7-0 start with Eli Holstein absent or ailing. The underrated QB appears unlikely to face Toledo, whose passing game is sharp enough to have led the MAC. Without Holstein, the Panthers must try to overcome Toledo's above-average rush defense. The Rockets also staggered to the regular season finish line with a pair of low-scoring defeats but its slump is shorter and more easily correctible. The Rockets have kept their roster virtually intact and, given the campus' proximity to Detroit, should get a lift from their fans.

I'll be buying the hook but Pittsburgh has been gutted by injuries/transfers (their starting QB is iffy due to injury and the backup already left town) and the like and has lost five straight as it is. Beating a power conference school is a big deal for Toledo, which can actually beat two in a season for only the second time in school history.

Even when things went well for Pitt this season, the Panthers were mostly a low-variance team, with three wins decided by the slimmest of margins in their deceiving 7-0 start. QB Eli Holsten was out much of November and status up in the air Thursday, important as backup Nate Yarnell has hit the portal, with little-used frosh David Lynch the other option. Slight regional edge here for the Rockets as Ford Field only an hour or so away, and good wins this season include SEC Mississippi State, Miami-Ohio, and Northern Illinois. The Rockets don't run especially well, but QB Tucker Gleason is a weapon, tossing 22 TD passes on the season, and no picks the last three games. Play Toledo (GameAbove Sports Bowl at Detroit)

If quarterback Eli Holstein doesn't play due to a leg injury suffered in November, I think Pittsburgh loses this game outright. It's not as if Toledo had a great season, but the Panthers lost five in-a-row to end the regular season and would be down to their third string QB against the Rockets. I'm willing to take that gamble, especially getting the half-point hook at 7.5.