Tulane's got some troubles headed into the Bowl game. Not only did they lose their final two games to Memphis and Army, but they lost their starting quarterback freshman Darian Mensah to the transferred portal to Duke. They also lost backup QB Kai Horton who hit the transfer portal, leaving them with Ty Thompson as a starter who saw bits and pieces of time as a wildcat quarterback. LSU's playing its best ball of the season after defeating LSU and Ole Miss and the coach is staying and being fired. The point is that Florida has all the pieces and is playing well and Tulane doesn't and is on a losing streak. The play is on Florida.

Given the unpredictable elements in bowls, heavy underdogs carry appeal. While starting QB Darian Mensah abandoned Tulane, replacement Ty Thompson is a former five-star recruit. In relief of Mensah, he was effectively run-first, which could keep the clock moving and shorten the game. He expects to have top WR Mario Williams and top RB Makhi Hughes at his disposal. Tulane's defense is rigid enough to limit Gator scoring. Though the Green Wave dropped their last two, they were impressive during an eight-game SU streak. Further reassurance: Florida coach Billy Napier is 0-4 ATS in bowls.

Florida had no business making a bowl game having faced a gauntlet of a schedule in the SEC, but they did and flourished with true freshman D.J. Lagway at the controls. On the other side, Tulane had an outside chance at the College Football Playoff after winning eight straight games before losing to Memphis and getting crushed by Army in the AAC Championship Game. Even with QB Darian Mensah off to Duke, I think backup Ty Thompson can keep the Green Wave in it. I have no doubt that the Gators can win, but betting two touchdown favorites in bowl games takes an even stronger sense of conviction that I don't have. Florida 27, Tulane 17.