How much should a line shift when one team suffers through a mass exodus of transfers and opt-outs out the door -- and the other team's door remains mostly shut? In this case, eight points. Not enough, perhaps, with largely intact Oklahoma State finishing the regular season on a 4-1 ATS and straight-up streak. Coach Mike Gundy has the bowl thing figured out, having won five of his last seven outright. Speaking of the door, A&M interim coach Elijah Robinson has one foot out of it; he's headed to Syracuse. O-coordinator Bobby Petrino already has vamoosed to Arkansas. The projected QB starter is Jaylen Henderson, a third-stringer who could have used Petrino's counsel.

We played Okie State +2.5 last week on the assumption that star running back Ollie Gordon would play in the bowl. The Doak Walker Award winner not only will do that but return to OSU next season. The Pokes lost very few players, while A&M got destroyed in terms of defections to the portal/draft. Happily will come back and play a short moneyline.

Who's left for the Aggies after coaching changes, opt-outs, and transfers? Oklahoma State coach Mike Gundy is 11-5 SU in bowl games and considering the last five Cowboys postseason trips have been decided by only one possession, I'd expect the same thing here. Assuming star RB Ollie Gordon plays against A&M, I think Oklahoma State's offense works well enough against the Aggies backups to get it done. Oklahoma State 28, Texas A&M 23.

Never doubt an angry Mike Gundy. The Cowboys are 4-2 against the spread as underdogs, and they’re facing an Aggies squad that has been decimated by the transfer portal and opt outs. There is momentum in Stillwater after star running back Ollie Gordon II announced his return to the program instead of jumping to the NFL, so expect a fired up squad in the Texas Bowl.

It would be almost easier to tell you which A&M guys might be playing as opposed which have opted out or transferred -- the latest today being five-star WR and freshman All-American Evan Stewart. The Aggies have been truly obliterated. We haven't yet heard on OSU star running back Ollie Gordon, but he has seemed to hint he will return next season and play. If he does officially return, I'll simply play this on the moneyline, too, but I'll take the 2.5 for now. Think A&M is in such bad shape that it won't even matter on Gordon.

Texas A&M will be without 11 players due to injuries, opt-outs, and the transfer portal. Head coach Jimbo Fisher is out, and former Duke head coach Mike Elko will take over starting next season. The Aggies went 1-5 straight-up and 1-4-1 against the spread vs fellow bowl teams, while the Cowboys went 4-4 SU and 4-4 ATS this season. Texas A&M went 1-4 SU and 1-3-1 ATS vs. winning teams, while Oklahoma State went 4-1 SU and 4-1 ATS vs. winning teams. QB Alan Bowman and RB Ollie Gordon II (Doak Walker award winner) should have a field day against a defense missing several key starters. I love Mike Gundy in games when his team is an underdog (11-6 ATS in the last three seasons).