Underdogs have been cash cows in the bowls so far. Northern Illinois is a good running team and Arky State struggles to stop it -- and is without leading tackler Javante Mackey. NIU is definitely better defensively. A lot of models, including SL's, have the Huskies winning. A bowl win would really matter to Northern Illinois as it hasn't won one since 2011, losing seven in a row. Huskies star wideout Trayvon Rudolph originally entered the portal and then changed his mind so he will play.

Arkansas State coach Butch Jones lets it all hang out in bowls, his teams having gone Over in the last four appearances. These Red Wolves rely on explosive plays behind Jaylen Raynor, one of the nation's premier frosh QBs. On the other extreme is NIU's Rocky Lombardi, who can find the end zone. Lombardi hopes to end a six-year playing career with a bang. He gets the ideal defense to do so; the Red Wolves ranked a lowly 107th for points yielded.

Northern Illinois has dropped seven straight bowl games and should be super motivated to win this game. Arkansas State played a slightly tougher schedule, but ignoring these stats is hard. The Red Wolves own a minus- 3.4 point differential and minus- 70-yard differential per game, while the Huskies are plus- 4.1 and- plus- 48, respectively. Arkansas State went 2-6 SU and 3-5 ATS while getting outgained (-155 YPG) in seven of the eight games against fellow bowl teams. Northern Illinois went 3-1 SU and 3-1 ATS while outgaining (+7) three of four matchups. Arkansas State is ranked 127th (dead last), while Northern Illinois is ranked 23rd in total defense of all the bowl teams. Defense travels well. I love the underdog!