The "George O'Leary Bowl" in Tampa has seen a late line move in the direction of UCF. Which, the last time it faced Georgia Tech, hammered the final nail into Geoff Collins' coaching coffin on the Flats with a 27-10 win last September. but the Brent Key Yellow jackets have been a different story, and tech is a noteworthy 11-3 as an underdog since Key took the reins just before the midway point of last season. Playmaker QB Haynes King was a bit sloppy this season (15 picks) but also accounted for 35 TDs via pass or run and is the most impactful player on the field in Tampa. Play GT

Level of confidence not crazy high but UCF rival South Florida sure did well last night staying in-state against a meh ACC opponent. Apples and turnips, sure, and Georgia Tech isn't in disarray like Syracuse was. However, the Jackets allow 5.4 yards/rush, worst among all Power 5 teams and 130th nationally. UCF averages a Big 12-best 5.7 yards/rush, fifth best in the FBS. Only a 90-mile drive or so from the UCF campus to Tampa, although on I-4 that probably takes 4 hours, especially this time of year. The Knights beat GT 27-10 last year in Orlando.

There's an argument that the regular season finish for UCF was more impressive than the finish for Georgia Tech, but both teams finished strong to become bowl eligible. When I look at the offensive and defensive efficiency metrics for both teams, I don't see a justification for a six point spread. Both teams are motivated to win this one and aren't missing much due to the transfer portal or opt-outs and I think we're looking at a highly competitive game.

The much-improved Yellow Jackets surged to a surprising fourth-place finish the ACC, and they have earned a reputation for being super sticky against superior opponents. Even so, this aligns as a favorable spot for a UCF club that peaked down the stretch amid the return of dual-threat QB John Rhys Plumlee, who missed four games because of a leg injury. The home-field edge is a bonus and, if the Knights get their offense rolling, they should be on their way to a double-digit victory.