The Miami (OH) Red Hawks have a good chance of covering the point spread with their superior defense and special teams. They have one of the best kickers in the country, Graham Nicholson, who was named first-team All-MAC. A significant factor to consider is the weather forecast, which shows a 100% chance of rain (over 1 inch) and winds of 15-35 MPH. This weather condition will negatively affect App State's passing attack and positively impact the Red Hawks running game. Miami (OH) ranks 36th against the run, while App State ranks 110th in rushing yards allowed. It is worth noting that the underdog is 4-0 ATS last four Cure Bowls, and Miami (OH) has a 6-1 ATS record in all bowl games since 1993.

Not much respect given to Miami-O, which has been silencing its critics since the opening loss in the "Battle of the Miamis" vs. the Canes. Since then, the RedHawks have won and covered 10 of 12 and won the MAC title in an upset of Toledo, as Chuck Martin has tossed aside the normal succession of .500 finishes at the Cradle of Coaches. Miami has also been one MAC team that has overachieved in bowls, covering the last four postseason trips, and functioned well minus QB Brett Gabbert as dual-threat Aveon Smith stepped in as a more-than-serviceable replacement. Note App has failed to cover three straight bowl appearances. Play Miami-Ohio (Cure Bowl Orlando)

Miami Ohio's defense has been elite all season, but I don't know how many offenses they've faced that have the high-end potential of Appalachian State. The 450.0 yards per game the Mountaineers averaged this year would be best in the MAC, as would App State's passing averages on the season. If the RedHawks can keep it low-scoring they've got a chance to win it outright but ultimately I like App State to have more firepower when it counts the most.

Almost certain rain and high winds in Orlando plus a third-string QB on one side with five career passes, none this season, add up to a probable Under even at this low figure. Miami's Henry Hesson deals with the harsh conditions and his own inexperience after Aveon Smith, who replaced the injured Brett Gabbert and guided the RedHawks to the MAC championship, went into the portal. App State is shy its own skill position players, with the top rusher and No. 3 receiver gone. Miami's offense operates at a snail's pace. Can it get any slower? Yes, which is another element to help keeping a lid on the scoring.

Cure Bowl and it's supposed to rain all Saturday in Orlando -- guess that means probably here too, bummer -- and Miami of Ohio is down to its third-string QB Henry Hesson, which may or may not be his witness protection name. The RedHawks had the best defense in the MAC and that largely has been untouched by the portal. App State leading rusher Nate Noel is out as is at least one key receiver in Deshaun Davis. The Mountaineers' defense played really well down the stretch before getting shredded by an excellent Troy team in the Sun Belt title game.