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It's the Egg Bowl, it's not supposed to make sense. Nothing about either of these teams matters in this game. It's always close, and it's always deliciously stupid. Where else are there penalties for mimicking a dog urinating?
Rivalry games sometimes bring spreads that appear reduced because the underdog presumably will find motivation. That's the apparent case here. Strip out the rivalry aspect, and Ole Miss would seem closer to a two-touchdown favorite. The Rebels' lone outright loss I the last seven outings was to No. 1 Georgia. Their typically potent offense averages 35-plus ppg. Underdogs need turnovers for an upset, yet the Rebs have committed just seven, fourth fewest in the land. Underdogs need to control the clock against foes with powerful offenses, but the Bulldogs cannot count on a subpar ground game. They are 3-8 ATS, one of the worst ledgers in FBS.
I'm honestly surprised this spread is as low as it is right now. I know that anything can happen in rivalry games like this, but Ole Miss is a vastly superior team and they have more to play for. MSU is playing for bowl eligibility under an interim coach, while Ole Miss can lock up a spot in a New Year's Six game. The Rebels are one of the best offensive teams in the SEC and I expect the to notch a blowout win on Thanksgiving.