This spread is way too low. South Florida went 1-11 last season, changed coaches and brought in more than 40 transfers. The Bulls will need time to build continuity. Meanwhile record-setting quarterback Austin Reed and play-making linebacker JaQues Evans return from a Hilltoppers team that went 9-5 last season. My model says Western Kentucky wins by 26 points so you're getting strong value at this number.

USF, whiose scoring defense was more porous than any team not named Colorado last season, could have picked a better opponent to open this one. Western Kentucky QB Austin Reed led the nation in passing yards and gets his two choicest receivers back for more constant pitch-and-catch. The Hilltoppers, favorites in C-USA, should clean up against the Bulls, winners of just three games outright the past two seasons. New USF coach Alex Golesh intends to speed up the offensive pace. That just means more snaps for Reed and pals to pile on the points.

This comes down to stability. We're looking at a returning quarterback and head coach in Western Kentucky, against a new head coach and quarterback uncertainty in South Florida. The model has WKU projected for 52 points, well over their team total of 40.5. It is hard to believe South Florida's offense can keep up with that to cover this number. WKU returns 68% of their offensive production while SFLA returns only 46%. If South Florida's defense looks anything like it did at the end of last season, Austin Reed should have no problem taking care of them.