This line has shifted nearly three points overnight -- and for good reason. While the latest image most have of these teams is Utah dominating USC for the Pac-12 title, it's easily forgotten that Penn State has obliterated all competition it faced other than Ohio State and Michigan this season. Both teams have some key defensive absences here, but the losses will hurt the Utes more. Sean Clifford has not received enough respect for his stellar play throughout his Nittany Lions career, and he has a chance to leave a lasting mark on Penn State in his career salvo.

Utah will be missing its top rusher and receiver from the regular season in the Rose Bowl. But the Utes still have QB Cameron Rising, who is the reason to expect them to approach their scoring average (40.0 points per game). Penn State just reeled off six straight covers and four straight wins to close the regular season. The Nittany Lions averaged a 36-18 score during the season and got better as the season went along with two freshman running backs taking on big roles. Neither team will back down; both teams will score. Over is the top play.

As the spread suggests, this bowl might top the list of most evenly matched teams. The nod goes to the Nittany Lions because they are less affected by opt-outs, with CB Joey Porter the lone serious one. Utah must fill three holes: RB Tavion Thomas, CB Clark Phillips and TE Dalton Kincaid, the Utes' most productive receiver. One glaring difference: Penn State is effective offensively in the red zone, Utah's defense is not. Who's hot in ATS terms? Penn State has covered in six straight.

This one will come down to the trenches, and that's Utah's music -- especially after a month to recover from the regular season. What's more, the Utes will be extremely motivated to get their Rose Bowl win after last season's heartbreaker. The Utes have covered in four of their last five games, and that will continue against a Penn State team that isn't capable of matching up in the trenches or on the outside.

Utah standout CB Clark Phillips lll has decided to skip this Rose Bowl to prepare for the NFL draft process. Penn State owns the better defensive line (No. 7 vs. No. 58), special teams (No. 23 vs. No. 64) and overall defense (No. 5 vs. No. 17) at Football Outsiders. Utah went 2-3 SU and 0-5 ATS when the line was 7 or less this season. Penn State is 8-1 SU and 6-2 ATS on a grass field, while Utah is just 3-2 SU and 3-2 ATS on that same surface. Penn State has played a tougher schedule (No. 10 vs. No. 21) and own better metrics against fellow bowlers, especially on defense. Take the underdog.