The Bulldogs overcame a 1-4 start with a seven-game win streak to reach the MWC title game. An improved defense has been the catalyst as the Bulldogs have allowed 14 or fewer points five times during that span. Boise State also has used a sterling defense that is yielding just 17.8 points per contest as the Broncos won seven of eight down the stretch. The Broncos rolled up 316 rushing yards in a 40-20 win over Fresno State in Week 6 in a game that got out of hand late. This one should be competitive and some big-play offense should be seen, but expect a modest scoring output that goes Under this total.

It’s going to be 31 degrees in Boise, but clear with no wind or rain. Fresno State has Jake Haener back at QB and the Bulldogs have been lighting up the scoreboard and the MWC. They scored 30 points or more in their last six games. Boise beat them 40-20 this season but Haener was out. Boise’s run game can’t be stopped. I like each team will score a bunch. Over is the top play.

Fresno State is a different team with Jake Haener healthy under center, but Boise State is allowing 17.8 points per game, ninth in the country. The Broncos gave up 23 points or fewer in every conference game this season for the first time since 1980 when they were 6-1 to win the Big Sky and went on to capture the 1-AA national championship. Boise beat visiting Fresno 40-20 earlier this year, but BSU isn't scoring 40 again as Fresno's defense has been much improved since. The Under is 6-1 in the past seven in the series.