This rivalry has produced a surprising number of low-scoring outcomes: 34 points last season, scores of 29-0, 24-10, 10-0, 30-16, 20-13 (in overtime), 21-17 and 21-0 within the past decade. Crimson Tide games this season have been all over the map. With a rabid crowd that could make play-calling difficult and wet conditions in Baton Rouge, the pattern of modest scores should continue.

Last year the LSU Tigers nearly pulled off the upset of Alabama with a far worse team than this year's edition. In this year's game, the Alabama defense isn't as dominant as before, and LSU's offense is more ball control and efficient. Also, LSU's defense can get after the QB while also being able to cover on the back end. They are expecting some inclement weather, which will more than likely affect the total, but I like this game to be much closer than this nearly two touchdown point spread.

A couple of thoughts quickly come to mind when I think of this game, beginning with Tennessee going into Baton Rouge four weeks ago and rolling 40-13. Then I think of Alabama shutting out LSU in two of the last three meetings at LSU. Joe Burrow barely beat Alabama. But then I look at the road schedule of Alabama, with a loss at Tennessee and a lucky win at Texas. But the final point that led me to LSU was QB Jayden Daniels, who leads the team in rushing (524 yards) and TDs (nine) while completing 69.9% of his passes and tossing 12 TDs against only one interception. The wizardry of Daniels and the home crowd got me. I took LSU and the points.

Former LSU coach Les Miles deemed Death Valley at night as the place where "opponents' dreams come to die." Dreams of a high-scoring shootout will come to die on Saturday night in Baton Rouge. Alabama will not get risky in this game. It just won't happen. If Alabama coach Nick Saban gets a lead in Death Valley, he will deflate the football in the second half. That's his M.O. in this rivalry. Additionally, LSU doesn't have a deep passing threat that can attack the Crimson Tide's defensive weakness -- its porous secondary.