Simulation Picks
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Understanding Public and Money
Expert Picks
We're getting the worst of the number that opened at -7.5 but the money is moving in the right direction. The short-memory public will be enamored with Tennessee's ultra-sharp performance in a blowout win at LSU last week, while the short-handed Tide clumsily outlasted stubborn rival Texas A&M. But Alabama QB Bryce Young is expected to play and the stage is set for a bounce-back performance. Alabama has won the past three meetings by 81 combined points and . although this one should be more competitive, look for Tennessee's whirlwind start to get grounded by a double-digit loss.
If Bryce Young plays -- and I expect him to -- there's no guarantee he's 100% with an injured shoulder on his throwing arm. So I'm expecting Alabama to lean more on the run game to protect Young and to keep that explosive Tennessee offense off the field. On the flip side, Tennessee's tackles could struggle against Will Anderson, and the best way for the Vols to slow him down will be to run the ball and not let him pin his ears back. It won't be a low-scoring affair, but 66 points seems to be a few too many.
I would definitely give anything to be in Knoxville on Saturday as it should be bananas as the Vols look to prove they are legit SEC contenders and end a 15-game losing streak in the series. The Heisman Trophy race might already be over in favor of Ohio State's CJ Stroud, but Hendon Hooker has the national spotlight to himself. If Bryce Young sits this one out for the Tide, I feel quite good about the number (although it will certainly drop). Even if not, he might not be 100 percent. The way I look at it is: Tennessee is better than both Texas and Texas A&M and both those schools probably should have beaten Alabama.
An objective look at these teams’ performances to date leads to one conclusion: There is very little separating them. Bama is winning ugly, Tennessee mostly pretty. It might be prudent to jump on this line early with the hook, though waiting on whether Crimson Tide QB Bryce Young, who sat out last Saturday, returns to duty. If Young is out, the spread surely will fall under a TD. Even with him, this is hardly a vintage Nick Saban team so far. The Neyland Stadium crowd will be ear-splitting, which could affect even the experienced Young should he play.