Michigan beat Maryland last week, but it raised some red flags. The Wolverines pass rush that dominated inferior opponents to open the year was slowed considerably, and if not for Blake Corum breaking off a few big runs, Michigan could've easily lost the game. Those runs aren't likely to be as readily available against a stout Iowa defense. While the Iowa offense is as ineffective as ever, I expect this to be a low scoring game, and top-five teams have lost five of their last six games against the Hawkeyes in Iowa City. I don't know that it becomes six of seven, but Michigan won't cover.

Right now for about the only time in my life, I wished I lived in Iowa instead of southwest Florida. I'll take Children of the Corn over Ian seven days a week and twice on Sunday. Yes, Michigan obliterated the Hawkeyes in last year's Big Ten title game, but I don't think this Wolverines team is nearly as good as we saw last week when it was pushed at home by Maryland. UM rarely plays well in Iowa City and the one thing the Hawkeyes can do is stop the run. Now that this is 11, I'll go. Frankly, the only model I can find that has Michigan winning by more than 10 is SL's. Iowa is 5-1 in its past six home games against AP top-5 opponents. Not calling for the upset but it wouldn't completely shock me.

The line is deflated because of Iowa’s ultra-low scores and No. 2 FBS ranking for yards allowed per snap. But the Hawkeyes have encountered an offense nothing like Michigan’s. The Wolverines might be superior to last year’s bunch that routed Iowa 42-3 in the conference title game. The Hawkeyes’ offense is producing a measly 13 points per game. If they hit that figure Saturday (and the defense or special teams do not score), Michigan covers with a modest total of 24 points.