I hate the feeling of overreacting to the awful performance against Syracuse, but I can't get behind this Louisville team at this number. Is it a little concerning this line isn't -7.5? Yes. My sim number on this game -11.5 so I have to play it. John Rhys Plumlee and Gus Malzahn is a perfect combo in a conference that isn't the SEC. Lay it with UCF at home.

When these two teams met last season, the defenses stood no chance as there was a total of 77 points. Louisville quarterback Malik Cunningham torched the Knights defense for 364 total yards and three touchdowns. UCF quarterback John Rhys Plumlee look amazing last week putting up 408 total yards and five touchdowns. Neither of these teams' defenses are great and it will show in this game. Take the Over.

Scattered showers are expected Friday night in Orlando and it could take away an offensive edge UCF has at home. But UCF plays its second straight game at home to start the season and put up 600 yards of offense in its first game. Louisville plays its second straight road game to start the season and the first didn’t go so well in a 31-7 loss at Syracuse. UCF has 17 starters returning from last season’s 9-4 squad and new QB John Rhys Plumlee tossed four TDs and ran for another in his debut last week. Take UCF to cover.

Louisville's 2022 season got off to a disaster start at Syracuse last week, and I don't think things will get better Friday. Starting the season on the road, and playing another road game on a short week is tough on anybody, and will certainly be tough on a Louisville defense that was torn to shreds. Take the Knights at home in a spotlight game with a point to prove.

I feel like I missed a memo. This line is actually shrinking. The Cardinals are coming off a 31-7 loss at Syracuse to start the season. While I am loathe to overreact to week one results, it does not make much sense to think that they are suddenly going to get within a touchdown of a UCF squad that is not only likely better than Syracuse but also thrilled to have an ACC opponent in their house. Get in on this one early.

I doubt Louisville is as bad at is looked in Week 1 at Syracuse but this is a tough ask on a short week, and it's going to be hot and humid in Orlando even with the night kickoff. UCF (which is on a day of extra rest having played Thursday instead of Saturday in Week 1) always seems to create good quarterbacks out of thin air and Ole Miss transfer John Rhys Plumlee was great in his Knights debut in throwing for four scores and rushing for 86 yards and a touchdown. Dude used to play receiver. UCF has won eight straight at home ... and I don't have a problem using a moneyline of -250 instead of worrying about some backdoor cover by Louisville.

I'll be honest ... I have absolutely no clue why this isn't a two-touchdown spread in favor of UCF. Quarterback John Rhys Plumlee -- who led the SEC in rushing in 2019 -- is the perfect fit for the run-first, up-tempo offense of coach Gus Malzahn. Meanwhile, the Cardinals managed just 334 yards against a bad Syracuse team in a 31-7 loss last week. Louisville will have to turn this into a shootout to stay in the game, and there's nothing to suggest that it can do that.