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I'm already on Over the absurd low total of 33.5 for Saturday's matchup from New Jersey (has since gone up) and now that Army has finally gotten below -7.5, we will take a shot on the spread even with the push possibility -- I doubt it gets any lower. The Black Knights have clearly been the superior team to the Middies all season. Army not only ranks No. 2 in rushing but No. 11 in stopping the rush. Navy has not been able to stop the rush and has uncharacteristically struggled running the ball itself at times. Unless Roger Staubach somehow found a time machine, I don't see Navy having much of a shot here, but it's a rivalry game and the Middies' bowl, so one can never be sure. I'd recommend buying this down to -6.5. Hey, back-to-back Army picks for me today (one on hoops)! That has to be a first.
I completely agree with Mike Tierney on this total -- these games almost always go Under, but this number is ridiculously low and by waiting a bit longer I got 33.5 instead of 34. Doubt that matters but never know. It is expected to be a bit rainy in the Meadowlands on Saturday but unusually warm. Army is averaging 35.5 points itself this season, and I easily could see the Black Knights going Over themselves against a Navy defense allowing about 30 points per. My prediction of total pass attempts on Saturday: 12.
It's cliche to say that you can throw out the records when these two teams play, but in this situation, it definitely rings true. The reason is that they are very similar in style, playing the same game as triple-option teams. Army has been more explosive this season and really has started to expand its offense a bit more. I worry about the Midshipmen's inconsistency on offense this year, and losing possessions to the quick-striking Black Knights could be a potential downfall for them in this matchup.
The military rivals could kick off with the lowest total for an FBS game in two decades. The Under does usually carry in the series — 17 of the last 21 — and three of the past four meetings have settled beneath this number. However, the teams allow a combined average of 52.4 ppg. Army can move the chains with its second-ranked rush offense. Forget the analysis. With a rock-bottom total last seen near the turn of the century, there is only one way to go.