Though I'm not getting the full two points here, with this expected to be a low-scoring game, getting points is better than not in this case. There's something to be said for Michigan coming in overhyped and Wisconsin entering potentially underrated given the way their seasons have gone to this point, but I just can't shake the play of Graham Mertz. I see no way that it gets better against this Michigan defense, and though Rutgers did appear to provide a playbook for how to take down the Wolverines, it's not like there aren't coaches on the other side ready to adjust to that. Jim Harbaugh needs this game so damn bad. I have to believe it's been circled. Go Blue.

Wisconsin has the top rushing defense in the country, and Michigan is going to try to test it. Like Notre Dame last week, the Wolverines will likely fail more than they succeed. The Badgers offense is struggling behind the erratic play of quarterback Graham Mertz, who might be on a short leash this week. The Wisconsin offense is unlikely to be the first team to put up more than 14 points on Michigan this season, and the Wolverines may not do a whole lot better. Take the Under.

Seriously ... a Badgers team led by Graham Mertz is a favorite over a Michigan team that has a solid defense and an offense that has shown signs of life throughout the first month of the season? Nah. No way. Michigan is 3-1 against the spread this year, and that will continue this week. There's just no reason to trust Wisconsin's offense. Take the points if you want them but a money-line sprinkle is also appropriate Saturday.

Let's just be real right out of the gate. If I lose this bet, fine, no problem I'll eat it, part of doing business. But the wrong team is favored here. Michigan has a better offensive line, stronger run game and averages 20+ points more per game than the Badgers. Not to mention the Wolverines defense is better too. If the "Harbaugh can't win big games" mantra plays out again, fine. But I'll take my chances here. There's nothing I like about this Wisconsin team. They seem more ripe for a QB change than a blowout win. Russell Wilson isn't walking through that door.

This total is small but how does either team -- both terrific defensively -- get past 20 points barring defensive/special teams touchdowns? Wisconsin is the No. 1 rush defense in college football and completely shut down Notre Dame last week but imploded due to its own mistakes. QB Graham Mertz has been terrible. Michigan is 4-0 but hasn't played anyone and relies heavily on its ground game. Good luck with that vs. this Wisconsin defense. This smells like 20-17 -- I just am not quite sure which team wins.

Under no circumstances am I willing to trust Graham Mertz and the Badgers as favorites right now. They've scored only 23 points in two games against Penn State and Notre Dame, and this Michigan defense is just as good, if not better than those teams. Yes, this will be Michigan's first road game of the season, but I have a lot more faith in its offense than Wisconsin's. Graham Mertz is a turnover machine, and it's only a matter of time before the Wisconsin defense gets worn down because of it.

After what we witnessed last week in Chicago, I just find it hard to trust the Badgers offense against a team in Michigan that has a stingy defense similar to Notre Dame's. The Wolverines fought through some adversity against Rutgers last week, and they'll be much better for it against a Wisconsin squad that is looking to get back on the winning track.