Miami has a lot of talent, but it has not looked like a cohesive team early in this season. Michigan State, meanwhile, looks to have taken some big steps forward in Year 2. Now that this spread is a full touchdown, I like a bet with the Spartans to keep it within the number. The Hurricanes do generally play better at home, but it's not like the crowd provides them a significant home-field advantage, especially for a matchup like this. It's just too many points to not take MSU.

It’s only two games, but I see a stark difference in this year's Michigan State team (which is averaging 553.0 yards of offense) compared to last year's team (which went 2-5 in Mel Tucker’s first year as coach). Spartans QB Payton Thorne has managed the games well (five touchdowns, zero interceptions). The running game is averaging 299.0 yards per game. I don’t disagree with the spread, but I have to go with what I’ve seen. Miami looks sluggish; Michigan State is making plays. Michigan State to cover.

Having seen a lot of both teams through the first weeks of the season, my trust level is much higher with the Spartans than the Hurricanes. I don't hold Miami's loss to Alabama against it, but the fact it nearly lost to Appalachian State at home last week does concern me. Michigan State has dominated both of its games from start to finish, and is now heading on the road full of confidence against a Miami team without any. The Canes might win, but Sparty's going to make life difficult.

I have ties to both school so I may go to this game ... the one thing keeping me from doing so would be the heat and humidity with the noon kickoff. That is also why I favor the Canes as Sparty could be worn down by the second half. The last time MSU played in such a "heat" game it managed just 13 points in a loss at Arizona State three years ago. Many models have Miami, which has played a much tougher schedule, winning by a TD and that's about what I expect. The Spartans have covered just three of their past 13 as dogs.