Well, I couldn't help myself. Had to bet one game tonight. Let's be clear here: I will be taking Michigan State +3.5 on an alt line, but it apparently will not get there by itself. Per usual, Sparty will be a good running and defensive team. The QB situation is a bit murky. Coach Mel Tucker also did well on the transfer market. Northwestern, meanwhile, brings back the fewest starters/returning production of all but two schools in the country. Pat Fitzgerald (whom I believe will be the next Bears coach) is great at his job, but the cupboard is pretty bare. There my be fewer points scored in this game than runs in this afternoon's Pirates-Cubs matchup, but I'm done with totals unless blatantly obvious.

The total might be low, but don't be scared. Neither one of these teams has an explosive offense or a QB capable of making big plays. What we're far more likely to see is a field-position battle in which both teams try not to make the big mistake, and that's going to lead to a low-scoring sleeper in Evanston.

Give the big check in the coaching edge to Northwestern's Pat Fitzgerald over Mel Tucker, but the wrong team is favored here. The Spartans went only 2-5 last season, but one of the wins was against Northwestern, which won and covered seven of its nine. Most of the Northwestern players from a defense that allowed only 15.9 points per game are gone, and just four starters on offense return. Michigan State brings back almost everyone. The Spartans have the cohesion, chemistry and an experience edge. Spartans to cover.