It's going to be a windy afternoon in Boise but I'm not worried about it. Tulane's offense is ground-oriented and will find room for success against a Nevada defense that's not awful, but not exactly great, either. As for the Tulane defense, it was excellent all season, particularly in its pass rush, but it will be missing three of its best players for this game. That's going to put a lot of stress on an already questionable secondary against a prolific passing attack.

Unlike most bowl totals that tend to rise, this one has barely budged, which makes the Over inviting. Tulane should hold up its end of the bargain. The Green Wave average 35.4 points a game and have eclipsed 30 in eight of the last nine outings, primarily with a ground attack that has generated 30 rushing touchdowns, sixth most in FBS. Nevada is less potent but should benefit from Tulane firing its defensive coordinator and at least two DLs, sitting out either from injury or personal reasons. Wolf Pack QB Carson Strong, the Mountain West Offensive Player of the Year, should legitimize the honor. Tulane has been battered by 279.4 aerial yards per game, the nation’s 115th worst figure.

FAMOUS IDAHO POTATO BOWL -- Tulane released its two deep for this game and several key players were not on it, so you can draw your own conclusions. Those missing included first-team All-AAC defensive linemen Patrick Johnson and Cameron Sample. Those two combined for 16 sacks and 23 tackles for loss. (Both Tulane coordinators also have left/been fired fairly recently.) A good Nevada offense led by quarterback and Mountain West Offensive Player of the Year Carson Strong could have a field day. Plus, hey, the Wolf Pack are used to playing on the blue turf in Boise.

FAMOUS IDAHO POTATO BOWL -- Expect Nevada’s offense to have plenty of success against the Green Wave defense. The Wolf Pack defense finished seventh in the Mountain West in in the regular season in defensive yards per play (5.35 yards per play), and the Green Wave has averaged 5.77 yards per play since the start of November. Expect a shootout.

FAMOUS IDAHO POTATO BOWL -- The Wolf Pack are 2-0 against the spread when an underdog this season, and have a sneaky good offense. Quarterback Carson Strong has 2,587 yards and 22 touchdown passes in eight games this season, while Tulane is giving up 5.54 yards per play and its passing defense is ninth in the AAC (279.4 yards per game). Take the Wolf Pack to cover and consider a money line sprinkle.