Though I tend to avoid picking games involving my alma mater, sometimes there is just too much value. This should be a pick 'em game considering Florida's dynamic offense, Georgia's thunderous defense and the fact that the opposite ends for both teams are rather mediocre. The best unit in the game is that Gators O, which features the SEC's top pass catcher in Kyle Pitts, one of its best playmakers in Kadarius Toney and arguably its top quarterback in Kyle Trask. The Dawgs enter this game banged up defensively and without their top wide receiver, which further limits an already limited offense. Unless Florida has no answers stopping Georgia's run game and UGA can completely control the clock, the Gators should win straight up. But it is a rivalry game, so I'll take the FG.

I feel like I've already seen this game. You know, the one where Georgia hopes it can stop an elite offense with its defense, and while it's able to slow it down a bit, offensively the Dawgs can't keep up. Florida's defense is friendly to opponents, but it becomes a lot easier to stop Georgia's rushing attack when you don't have to worry about its QB being able to beat you. Georgia is good enough to win this game, but even in victory I don't think it can cover the spread.

Both teams are compromised by injuries, suspensions and potential Covid protocols. However, the healthiest unit is the best one in this game -- the Florida offense. Georgia's vaunted defense allowed 41 points to Alabama and Florida is capable of doing the same, provided it doesn't self-destruct. But with Georgia's defensive quarterback, safety Richard LeCounte, sidelined by an off-field injury, the value lies with Florida QB Kyle Trask and his myriad weapons.

I love the value on Georgia in a huge neutral site SEC matchup with Florida. The Gators will be one of the biggest square underdogs of the season thanks to over performing in many ways to start the season. My simulations suggest the opening line of -6 was much closer to where the market should be. I make Georgia -6.8 points better in this neutral site matchup. Lay it.

There's this narrative that Florida's defense is awful and Georgia's defense is lights out. That is not the case anymore. The Bulldogs are going to be without starting defensive linemen Jordan Davis and Julian Rochester, safety Richard LeCounte, and probably several others. Meanwhile, Florida's problem on defense (third downs), was fixed last week against Missouri when it allowed just 5-of-18 attempts. This one will be driven by offense, and there's nothing to suggest that Georgia can keep up.