Ohio State has gone 10-1 against the spread in its last 11 games against winning teams, one of those being a 38-10 win against Wisconsin in Columbus on Oct. 26. The Buckeyes have already beaten Wisconsin mentally twice before this game is even played -- the first being when the Badgers looked ahead to Ohio State and lost at Illinois, and the second was the Oct. 26 game itself. If this was played in Wisconsin, I might not lay the points. But anywhere else, I’m all on Ohio State.

The final matchup Saturday night between Wisconsin and Ohio State is the main one that could shake up the CFP picture. Ohio State pulled off another win/cover rout last week against Michigan. Ohio State now faces a Wisconsin team with a style of play that could give the Buckeyes a bit of a problem. Look for the Buckeyes playing not to lose, boding well on the Badgers' side against the spread.

Teams learn more about themselves after a loss. The Badgers responded after losing in Columbus with four straight victories -- scoring 37 or more in three of those games. Ohio State has been a spread-covering machine all season long, but the Buckeyes are just 1-2 against the spread their last three games. Quarterback Justin Fields is not 100 percent, limiting his running ability. Wisconsin will try to control the clock and game with its offensive line and RB Jonathan Taylor. Quarterback Jack Coan has had a very successful campaign as a first-year starter, throwing only four interceptions. The Badgers were getting 13.5 points at the Horseshoe, and now get 16.5 on a neutral field.

I have concerns with Ohio State here because Justin Fields is not 100 percent, and that limits his mobility. A limited Fields leaves Ohio State with an offense that isn't at full power, but is still good. Then there's the Wisconsin offense, and I don't know where the points are coming from. Ohio State has locked down Jonathan Taylor in his previous two meetings (2.7 YPC), and will likely do so again here. So while I like the Buckeyes ATS, the Under is the smarter play.

The Badgers defense has rebounded from its mid-season swoon, and they will want to atone for the loss to these Buckeyes earlier this season. What's more, the Badgers offensive line got torched by Chase Young and Co., but are too talented not to learn from their mistakes. Trust both defenses to have success -- especially since Buckeyes quarterback Justin Fields isn't 100 percent.