Nevada has beaten better teams than Vanderbilt already. ...

Northern Colorado has played the tougher schedule thus far, despite being 0-2 SU on the road. The Bears defend the perimeter very well, holding opponents to less than 26% shooting and take care of the basketball. Both teams’ stats are rather similar, but Cal Baptist does shoot it from stripe better, 80.4% at home. The Lancers have struggled on defense, allowing their opponents to score 77 points, or more, in three of their first four game. Northern Colorado is more battled test and the more rounded team to keep this one close.

Early in a college basketball season there are rare instances where teams don’t travel. California Baptist will host their fifth straight home game tonight as they take on Northern Colorado. Up until the Lancers last game against Long Island, their prior three games were decided by five points or less. Take the value here on Northern Colorado in the night cap plus the five.

USC hasn’t played well early in the season. The Trojans barely scraped by Idaho State and UT Arlington before losing at home to Cal, 71-66. USC needs a “get right” game and San Jose State is just what the doctor ordered. San Jose State hasn’t beaten a Division I opponent yet this season. It’s not like the Spartans are playing a murderous schedule either. KenPom ranks San Jose State 260th in strength of schedule. I expect the Trojans to be focused and motivated coming off a loss. Look for USC to dominate in the paint against a San Jose State team that ranks 294th in two-point field goal percentage defense.

Arizona is off two good wins and are 4-1 ATS on the season. Both teams have been struggling with turnovers to begin the season. The Mustangs, while they’re not the most efficient offensive team, are pretty solid, shooting 52.4% effectively on the road. They should be able to have success on the glass against this Arizona State team that has struggling rebounding thus far. The Mustangs are 2-1 ATS on the road, the better free throwing shooting team and just need to limit the turnovers to stay within the number.

This is a huge number to lay, but this is a huge mis-match. The Zags have been outstanding in the early going, blowing out all four teams they've played. LBSU, on the other hand, has lost three straight and look like a team that will finish near the bottom of the Big West Conference. I expect the Bulldogs to roll here.

Tulsa is 3-0 SU at home to begin the season, but really haven’t played anyone. The Trojans have been more battled tested with games, on the road, against Arkansas State and Winthrop. They’re defense has performed well despite the result of some of their games, holding opponents to 41.7% shooting inside the arc. Tulsa has struggled from deep, 29.7% on the season, and want to create turnovers and beat their opponent in transition. The Trojans shoot a ton of threes and may have success against a weak perimeter defense.

The Tigers are a tourney team. They are sound defensively and have multiple guys who can create for themselves and hit the three ball. There were the preseason class of the CAA for good reason and Pat Skerry did a nice job retaining an experienced core in the portal. They lost an overage Covid big man - who was a very good player in that conference - but still have sufficient size and skill to win this game by double digits.

Morehead State has really struggled offensively to begin the season. They’re shooting 37.1% effectively on the year, 6th worst in the country and lost their top scorer from last season and it’s showing. The Governors play at a slower pace, averaging 70 possessions per game and the same goes for Morehead State, 70.5 possessions. Both teams defend the perimeter somewhat well but neither offense has been very on offense.

The Elon Phoenix have just one win on the season, and it came against a non division one school in Bluefield University. That typically is a bad sign traveling on the road this early in the season. Yet, the Phoenix challenged North Carolina to just a fourteen point loss and lost by just one point to Gardner-Webb. They have better balanced scoring then last season, including TJ and TK Simpkins both scoring in double figures. Take Elon.

Not having much fun in college basketball yet. It's just impossible to keep up with who is on what roster with the Wild Wild West of transfers. So all these games the models are loving are blowing up in my face of late. If this continues much longer, we may just take a pause until conference play when then there is some familiarity. KP ranks Kennesaw at No. 192 and Abilene at 201. The models are on KSU in consensus, too. The Owls are the nation's 10th fastest team in pace and rank seventh nationally in three-pointers made per game at 12.3 and are Top 20 in scoring (93.3).

It hasn't helped SCU that its three-point shooting has gone completely on the blink, now at an unsightly 26.2% for the season. A chief culprit has been boomerang transfer G Carlos Stewart, who was counted upon to be a consistent deep threat after scoring 15 pg in his last tour of duty for the Broncos two years ago. instead, he's at an icy 15% (3 for 20), and his contributions so erratic that Sendek benched him on Saturday at Nevada. The early schedule has been challenging, but so looks UCR, with much of its lineup back from last season, led by explosive soph G Barrington Hargress (19.2 ppg; scored 26 in last week's rousing 70-69 road win over Riverside rival Cal Baptist). Play UCR

A different-looking Purdue these days minus Zach Edey, but still scoring better than 85 pg in the early going and hitting 46% of its 3s with a lineup now spinning around vet Gs Fletcher Loyer (17 ppg) and Braden Smith (15.5 ppg). Rugged 6-9 Trey Kaufman-Renn is more in the mold of traditional functional Purdue bigs and is scoring at an impressive 18 pg. Meanwhile, Shaka Smart's new-look Marquette has thus far not been missing G Tyler Kolek (now NBA Knicks). Instead, G Kam Jones (now 24 ppg) is the star of the show as he continues to remind the support base of another explosive Marquette wing...Dwyane Wade. These teams are combining for 168 ppg so clearing 152 seems within reason. Play Purdue-Marquette "Over"

I was waiting to see which way this line went and it moved to Marquette so I missed the good number. I'm going to just take the ML here. I like the Golden Eagles to win the game. Purdue got me against Alabama but I still question this Boilermakers' defense. Look for Kam Jones and the Marquette guards to give Purdue's defense problems. Marquette is 9-1 straight up in its last 10 home games. I'm comfortable laying around -150 with the Golden Eagles.

KenPom ranks Louisiana at No. 181 and Rice at 227. The Owls, picked to finish last in the AAC, are 3-1, but their three wins are over a bunch of cupcakes and this is their first road game -- it starts a six-game run of them. Louisiana has lost close to a good Kent State team and big at Top 10 Houston. So the records don't much matter. Since the start of the 2022-23 season, the Cajuns are 26-4 at home. They also won easy at Rice last season.