Mus and his merry band of transfers are suddenly looking good...

Iowa is allowing 91.5 PPG away from home...

To begin its first long-distance trip as a Big 12 member, UCF hung tough Saturday at Arizona before bowing . .

Each team has lost three in a row and are winless in the SEC. This may be a buy low spot with Arkansas, but this is only their third true road game, and you can already say that John Calipari may be on the hot seat. These two teams are very similar but the Tigers struggle with the turnovers. Arkansas is the more talented but them as a road favorite is kind of odd. The Tigers are an experienced team with the better coach and defend inside the arc the 12th best in the nation. LSU is 9-1 SU at home while the Razorbacks are 2-8 ATS record their last 10 games.

I'm still smarting from last night's Furman play, easily my worst of the season as it turned out (well, the models loved it). Not super shocked the Paladins lost at home, but they didn't even show up against a bitter rival. Guessing those dudes were running stairs early this morning. This number has come down a fair amount on Rice, but I don't know of any injury issues. Our model has the Owls by 7 and ESPN BPI has them by 5.3. UTSA has one road victory this season. Rice is second in the AAC in scoring defense (66.2 ppg) and FG percentage defense (39.5%) and third in rebounding (39.3 per game).

With games involving the Purple Aces, their trends might take precedence, especially considering the eleven straight under results. With firepower limitations, David Ragland has slowed the pace to a crawl; scorelines have averaged a tick above 114 across the past five games. Evansville scores only 63.7 pg, which ranks 346 out of 355 nationally, and hits barely 29% of its triples (ranks 334). Indeed, the Purple Aces probably couldn't speed up the pace even if they tried. Meanwhile, though Ben Jacobson's Panthers prefer to go uptempo, they opened their season on a 10-3 under run until a recent spurt of three overs vs. faster-paced teams...not a label to affix to Evansville. Play Evansville-UNI Under

In both college basketball plays today I’m backing teams coming off season lows in points. Valparaiso scored just forty seven points in their loss to Murray State. Yet, they’ve showed fight in-conference taking Bradley and Indiana State to overtime. Belmont has also been susceptible over their last nine games three have been losses, and six wins were all by seven points or fewer. Grab the underdog here with Valparaiso.

I got a total here with Valparaiso and Belmont that's almost 20 points lower than what I have it at. The total is 158, which looks high, but this thing should be 178. Belmont averages a score of 81-79 on the season and Valparaiso averages a 73-73 score. Belmont has set the tempo this season getting over 11 out of 16 games. Over is the play.

The absence of Auburn’s injured Johni Broome, a frontrunner for national player of the year, will be felt more on rebounds than scoring. The Tigers can replace much of his 18 points per game but will be pressed to match his 11 rebounds per. Mississippi State is 3-0 straight-up in true roadies and has the statistical evidence to cope with a rowdy Tigers crowd: tied for sixth nationally in fewest turnovers and tied for fifth in steals per game. Auburn last covered against the Bulldogs four meetings ago. The scratch of Broome dropped the line a few points at some sportsbooks, but it remains sizable enough to offer appeal to the underdog ‘Dogs.

With ailing Wade Taylor out, the Aggies are left with just one double-figure scorer, Zhuric Phelps. That likely gives Kentucky coaches an easy call. Lamont Butler, a lock-down defender, should be assigned to him. A&M will especially miss Taylor given how he has excelled against the Wildcats. Kentucky scores in the high 80s, about a dozen points more per game than the Aggies do, so the visitors will need production from players unaccustomed to filling the hoop. A&M has ventured out for only two road games, and it is no small feat to be competitive at Rupp Arena.

A season ago the Buffalo Bulls were one of the worst teams in division one with a record of 4-27. They have now lost seven straight games against division one opponents, and are coming off as season low forty nine points. This is a buy low spot as the Bulls trailed by just four points to Kent State at halftime in their last game, and will correct their offensive issues against Bowling Green. Grab the points here with Buffalo.

Even with star 6-10 F Johni Broome (17.9 ppg; 10.7 rpg; ankle) out until further notice, Auburn remains formidable. Though if Bruce Pearl wants to win a national title with this current Tigers edition, Broome needs to return at some point. Minus Broome, matchups like tonight vs. MSU become even more challenging. Chris Jans has a tough-minded backcourt paced by Gs Josh Hubbard (17 ppg) and BC transfer Claudell Harris Jr, who spearhead an 84 ppg offense. A legit post scoring threat like 6-10 KeShawn Murphy allows the Bulldogs to effectively spread the floor in halfcourt sets as well. MSU has had enough quality efforts to suggest it can chase this scoreline much as that high-scoring loss to sixth-ranked Kentucky on Saturday. Play MSU

Not a helpless underdog, this Ball State side that's won five of six and just bombed Bowling Green 91-69 in Muncie on Saturday. It might be worth keeping tabs on the Cards, too, as they have a unique feature in the MAC, a bruising big man, as punishing boomerang transfer 6-10 C Payton Sparks has scored 19 or more and grabbed 12 rebounds or more in four of the past five games, while juco G Fatt Hill (16.5 ppg) balances the floor. As for the host Bobcats, they're only 4-8 as chalk this season, and not carried away by Saturday's blowout of a poor Northern Illinois. Play Ball State

History has taught us to mostly ignore pre-league action for SWAC entries, who spend much of November and December overscheduling themselves for payday assignments against major conference opposition. Dynamics often change in league play, and we offer Jackson State, 0-13 into SWAC play but now 2-0 in the loop. That 0-13 deceives a bit because the schedule was brutal, but improved recent efforts coincide with the availability of ex-Ole Miss G Deashun Ruffin, a former double-digit scorer in the SEC recently activated and now the Tigers' leading scorer while pacing recent improved efforts. Ruffin could definitely make an impact in the SWAC, and unconvinced about A&M, whose two SWAC wins came vs. bottom-feeder Ark-Pine Bluff and Jerry Rice's Mississippi Valley State. Play Jackson State

Morgan State is hardly riding the handbrake for HC Kevon Broadus, as the over streak is now at nine after the first three MEAC tilts have cruised to scorelines of 158 or higher (the 102-98 win vs NC Central was helped by double OT). The last two games have been minus top scorer (and ex-Boston College) G Wynston Tabbs, but the Bears keep scoring, now at 82.4, high for a MEAC entry. Meanwhile, a good chance Norfolk State is the class of this loop, with the only overall winning mark (12-7) in the MEAC. Murray State transfer G Brian Moore (18.7 ppg) is flourishing in the Tidewater, and the Spartans' 49% FG shooting is outstanding for the MEAC. Play Norfolk State-Morgan State Over