Each team is 4-1 on Unders since the regular season ended, so why stop now? Both sides perform at a reasonable, not outrageous, pace. Auburn's defense is the eighth most efficient in Division I, according to KenPom. Going farther back into Michigan State's schedule, the Spartans have gone Under in 14 of the past 17 outings. Coach Tom Izzo might prefer a grinding game and will try to muck it up with a patient offense and rugged defense.

This is just too juicy of a price to pass up on a Tom Izzo-coached team to reach his ninth Final Four opposing Auburn's Bruce Pearl, who has reached one in his decorated career. It's also a bet against the rarity of all four No. 1 seeds reaching the Final Four, which ahs only happened once (2008) in NCAA Tournament history.

The Spartans trailed much of the way against an Ole Miss club that appeared to have the better team having the better night. But coach Tom Izzo's March-proven pedigree won out again as Michigan State scrapped its way to the Elite Eight. The Tigers have the superior talent but have shown lapses at times. They were let off the hook by Michigan on Friday but it's unlikely the Spartans will be put away before the final horn.

Will taking care of MSU prove more tricky for Auburn than doing the same vs. Michigan on Friday? Maybe not, though Auburn had to rally from a 9-point deficit midway in the second half to outscore Michigan by 22 the rest of the way to win handily. Bruce Pearl called upon three scorers to hit for 20+ on Friday (when Johni Broome, Denver Jones, and Tahaad Pettiford all complied) suggests real explosive balance. Meanwhile, MSU was up against the wall on Friday vs. a slightly-lesser SEC entry (Ole Miss), and for all of the Tom Izzo accolades, he doesn't always win in March, as no coach has lost more games in the Big Dance the past 20 years. Play Auburn (NCAA at Atlanta)

Sparty Unders is a way of life, and I suspect it's our last chance to ride that wave this season. No reason to change now. When the total is under 152, Michigan State is 20-6 to the under. Sparty is under in 11 of its last 13 games and 14 of the last 17. They slow it down and throw 4 bigs at you and can't shoot threes. Auburn isn't as run-and-gun as some other top SEC schools, they have settled down in tourney play and are under in 4 of their last 5. They just went under by 12.5 vs a Big 10 school (Michigan). Auburn can get a little nervy and out of sorts offensively.