The Gators struggled in the second round against a UConn team that played stout half-court defense and held its own on the boards. Texas Tech is better on both categories and, despite coming off an OT thriller that could lead to a possible letdown, we're expecting the Red Raiders to fight until the finish and at least cover.

Texas Tech is a dangerous team in my eyes, why? House money! The Red Raiders shouldn’t even be playing in this game, nonetheless against Florida, who it seems everyone is picking to win it all. Texas Tech can play loose and free and that’s a huge advantage. The Red Raiders must shoot better from three though to win this game. The points are the difference.

Florida's Final Four resume looks outstanding at 33-4 with 27 covers, and the current form is even better as they've won 9 in a row and gone over in their last 10. They shoot 47.3%, make 30 field goals a game, and average 9.9 3-pointers made a game. They ranked fourth in the nation averaging 85.5 points a game. But it's the defense of Florida that will beat Texas Tech, which allows 39.9 shooting, and the perimeter defense, which ranks 10th at 29.3% allowed. Texas Tech didn't wow me in the tournament with who they played, and they're 1-4 ATS in their last five. Florida to cover.

Texas Tech defied the odds to reach this point, needing a dramatic comeback to beat Arkansas in the Sweet 16. Florida looked like a team that got scared straight in its narrow second round win over UConn when they dismantled Maryland in the Sweet 16. The Gators are legitimate title contenders and I expect them to punch their ticket to the Final Four with a decisive win over TTU on Saturday.

The Red Raiders rallied vs. Arkansas on Thursday but it wasn't an offensive clinic by any means. After inconsistencies in the first two rounds, TT was only 8 for 32 from deep vs. the Porkers, continuing erratic shooting. Meanwhile, we suspect the Gators got the yips out of their system in the second-round win over UConn, as all the cylinders were firing in Thursday's romp past a dangerous Maryland side. Attacking from all angles with six double-digits scorers on Thursday led by G Will Richard's 15 points, it was Florida at its best, and this nine-game win streak vs. Big Dance entries, scoring 86 or more eight times, suggests Florida is peaking at the right time. Play Florida (NCAA at San Francisco)