One historical trend is on the line here as a First Four team has won a game in the R64 every year but one. I thought that team would be North Carolina, but the Heels woke up too late against Ole Miss. Why I think this trend might be relevant is the rust/rest thing. Xavier obviously had to rally Wednesday to advance, but Illinois hasn't played in a week and looked horrible last Friday in losing to Maryland. When two of your best three players are freshmen ... I don't trust freshmen-dominated teams this time of year. Carmelo was the one-off and so was "Never Nervous" Pervis Ellison. They were separated like by 20 years, so it's rare.

This was shaping up as a shootout in Milwaukee no matter who emerged from Wednesday's Xavier-Texas First Four clash at Dayton. Illinois was awaiting either, and would likely be able to deploy its uptempo offense that scored a brisk 83.8 ppg (ranks th nationally). Brad Underwood's attack is usually on full-blast from all angles, with five double-digit scorers led by rapid-fire 6-6 frosh wing Kasparas Jakucionis (15 ppg). No surprise, then, that since Christmas week, the Illini has over 16-7. Meanwhile, the Musketeers are on their own 11-3 over run after the whirlwind tally vs. Texas, with one of the nation's deadliest collection of long-range bombers who hit 38.8% of their triples (ranks sixth nationally). Play Xavier-Illinois Over (NCAA at Milwaukee)

The Illini have been on a rollercoaster, splitting the last 18 games, with injuries and illness depleting the squad at times en route. At their best, Illinois runs and guns with a-near 84 ppg offense, though top scorer frosh wing Kasparas Jakucionis looked to be wearing down late in the season, held to ten points or fewer four times in the last seven. The Musketeers look dangerous, displaying lots of bottle when rallying to beat SEC Texas in the First Four at midweek, and a recent seven-game Big East win streak that including a thumping of dangerous Creighton. The 1-2 punch of F Zach Freemantle (17.2 ppg) & G Ryan Conwell (16.7 ppg) gives Sean Miller two legit go-to threats. Play Xavier (NCAA at Milwaukee)

Tournament play even with a win can expose a teams flaws. Xavier had the pride to fight back against Texas, but they will not get the door left open as the Longhorns did today. The Illini are well coached under Brad Underwood and have advanced beyond round one four out of the last five years. Take the Illini here.

I have been on Xavier for the last month. The Musketeers are a team I was high on coming into the season. After dealing with injuries and suffering some close losses, Xavier hit its stride late in the year. I also like the way Xavier won its First Four game over Texas. The reason First Four teams typically win a couple of games is because they get confidence from that first win. Illinois has been inconsistent all season. I think this sets up nicely for Xavier to outscore them and pull off the small upset.