Sticky defense and a patient offense define UCLA. The Bruins yield the 27th fewest points per game in D-1 at 65.7 and are ranked 32nd in defensive efficiency. Their average possessions per game ranks 296th. All of which points to a modest score. As coach Mick Cronin has bemoaned, his team has not thrived in Eastern time zone games, scoring in the 60s in five of six. Utah State is capable of big numbers, but its pace based on possessions is below the median at 226th.

UCLA is at least used to the travel, with several road swings into Big Ten country the past few months, more than a few bumps but a few wins (Indiana, Northwestern) as well. Lexington shouldn't faze the Bruins, unless they show up like they don't want to play as in the Big Ten Tourney. At their best, however, UCLA guards the perimeter, which could jam the brakes on top Utag threats Ian Martinez & Mason Falslev, and USU did lose four of its last five away from Logan. As top Bruins scorers Tyler Bilodeau and Eric Dailey were almost blanked in the Wisconsin loss, expect a strong recovery tonight down the road from Keeneland. Play UCLA (NCAA at Lexington).

The Aggies are making their third consecutive NCAA Tournament appearance and won't be overwhelmed by the big stage. Utah State has won 15 of its last 20 games. The Aggies have a top-20 offense, ranking highly in 2-point shooting (12th at KenPom), three-point percentage (69th), and overall offensive efficiency (17th). UCLA is ranked 193rd in 2-point defense and 130th in 3-point defense. The Aggies play at a faster tempo, which could disrupt UCLA's rhythm, with an 88% Rim and 3 Rate compared to UCLA's 65.3%. UCLA experienced a mid-season slump and was eliminated early in the Big Ten tournament. Utah State played a much tougher Non-conference schedule (No. 139 vs. No. 312). I like the points, and an outright upset would not shock me.

Utah State lost three of its last five games, while UCLA split its final eight. The Bruins are stout defensively, but I like the Aggies and their efficient offense (48.4 percent shooting, 17th nationally) to keep this close. Utah State starts four seniors including Ian Martinez, who scored 21 points in the Aggies' NCAA Tournament win over TCU last year. In that matchup, Utah State was a 3.5-point underdog despite being the No. 8 seed. This year's Aggies went 11-5 in road and neutral-site games, including winning at Saint Mary's.