A devilish matchup by the Committee pitting nation's ninth-best scoring offense (Mizzou 84.8 ppg) vs the top-ranked scoring defense (Drake 58.4 ppg). Fair to speculate how the Tigers might react if they can't get their bread-and-butter transition game moving as usual. But even when Mizzou was able to speed down the stretch in the SEC, it was losing four of its last five because the defense leaked so profusely, allowing almost 91 ppg across that stretch. Ben McCollum's well-drilled Drake only lost 3 times (single-digit losses vs. Missouri Valley competition), cruised past SEC Vandy in the Charleston Tourney back in November, and have a very dangerous weapon in D-II transfer (along with HC McCollum) Bennett Stirtz, scoring at 19.1 ppg. Play Drake (NCAA at Wichita)

I love the Missouri Valley Conference every year, but I got a chance to see Drake up close and personal in January and wow, this team is for real. Ben McCollum is one of the best minds in college basketball and if you have not seen Bennett Stirtz handle the rock, he is one of the best players in this tournament. Drake covers and potentially wins outright.

Missouri has lost five of seven, giving up 91-plus points in each of those losses. The Tigers rank 71st in defensive efficiency, per KenPom. Lately they've been prone to fouling. Drake runs a patient offense full of screens and ranks 11th in free throws per field goal attempt. The Bulldogs also lead the nation in steal rate at 14.6 percent. The Tigers will be doubling Bennett Stirtz (19.1 ppg, 5.7 apg) to get the ball out of his hands, but I have confidence in his teammates like Mitch Mascari (41 percent on 3-pointers). Mizzou's Mark Mitchell is good to go after hurting his knee in the SEC Tournament, but I still like the Bulldogs to keep it close.

For the first four, it seems like teams want to turn it up offensively, despite totals dropping to align with slower tempo teams. Drake is one of the slowest teams in the country which is not the case for the Tigers. Drake typically controls the tempo, making teams play their game, but that may be difficult to do against the Tigers. Missouri likes to play fast and get to the free throw line. The Tigers have only had two games this season with totals in the 130’s and both games went over.

Coach Ben McCollum did a great job with Drake in his first season and led his team to a 30-3 season, better than last year's NCAA tournament team the went 28-7. He did it with no returning starters. They look the same shooting 48.1% from the field. This isn't a road game, it's a neutral site game, but it's still not a home game and Missouri went 3-7 in their road games this season as opposed to Drake going 9-1. That mental toughness is worth backing on the money line. I'll take Drake to cover in this game.