Houston blew a 13-point lead to the Aggies in their last game. Duke blew out the Dukes, shooting 50% from three. However, Duke’s offense has been more consistent than the Cougars as it can go stagnant for a decent amount of time. Houston also allowed 26 offensive rebounds to the Aggies with four starters in fouling out. Duke’s defense has improved over the season as they guard the perimeter well and the Cougars often fall back on shooting threes.

Fundamentals might not work nearly as good for Duke vs. the Cougs as they did last weekend in the sub-regionals. Kelvin Sampson’s nation’s-best scoring defense (57 ppg) can really jump on foes, and while the Aggies kept battling on Sunday, we are hardly sure Duke’s collection of finesse-oriented guards can go nose-to-nose with Sampson’s stoppers as did Obaseki, Taylor and Radford on the A&M side. Indeed, if there is one defense in the nation capable of knocking the Blue Devils off of their pins, it’s Houston, and we will be very curious to see if any among Jeremy Roach, Tyrese Proctor, and Jared McCain are going to be able to fill the bucket vs. the Coug defense. Play Houston (NCAA at Dallas)

There will be some three-point regression from going 14-of-28 from behind the arc in a blitzing effort against JMU, but the fact that the Blue Devils have one of the best catch-and-shoot players around in Jared McCain remains. Duke has shooters that can make an aggressive Houston defense pay when it gambles, and the Cougars can be challenged if it has to keep up with a hot shooting night on the other side. The Blue Devils have not always done a great job maintaining their edge in the wake of strong performances, but if Jon Scheyer can get this team dialed again they’re good enough to win, and definitely cover.

If the officials don’t swallow their whistles Duke should be able to exploit a Houston D that is overrated (still good but overrated). Duke has guys who can score and are playing their best ball. Take the points

The strongest play in the Duke-Houston matchup figures to be the Under on the total. Duke has improved immensely on the defensive end of the floor, where opponents are averaging just 55 points in the team's last five victories. From an ATS standpoint, I trust Kelvin Sampson’s in-game adjustments to overtake pivotal stretches of the game. Additionally, Jamal Shead has been a part of Houston’s Final Four, Elite 8 and Sweet 16 teams over the prior three years. Friday’s matchup will mark his 15th tournament game as a member of the Cougars.