I initially wanted to lay the 5.5 but Fan Duel has this at -245 when all other sites have this -270 or better. Too much value not to take a rare huge favorite

These heavy-scoring teams have drawn a lofty total -- perhaps too high in light of recent results. James Madison, which owns the superior defense, has yielded 64 and 68 points in their Sun Belt tourney outings. Arkansas State, soft on defense this season, has buckled down to allow 62 and 65 in its pair. The Dukes' games wound up with 145 and 141, while the latter Red Wolves' encounter produced 132. This one should land under a buck and a half.

Arkansas State took out number 1 seed Appalachian State last night in an absolute thriller, but I think the magic ends for them tonight against The Dukes. Arkansas State has some dynamic scorers, but defensively they are very porous and JMU has too much on both ends of the floor for Arkansas State to compete for the full 40 minutes. Expect Arkansas State to put up a fight, but destiny is calling for the Dukes to go dancing and they pull away late in this one.