Kentucky just set the single game point record at Rupp Arena with 118. The Wildcats are 2-3 ATS at home while Miami is 4-1 ATS overall. Kentucky struggled against Saint Joseph’s 56th ranked defense in terms of efficiency. The Hurricanes defense is just outside the top-100 but have plenty of veteran players to guard the perimeter to check the Kentucky guards. The Hurricanes need to control the boards and get to the free-throw to stay within the number.

The Hurricanes are shooting 52.4 percent overall, 45.8 percent from deep, and are unbeaten after returning three starters from last year's Final Four team. Kentucky also is shooting the lights out, 42.5 percent from deep, but the data suggests the Wildcats' accuracy is less sustainable. Kentucky is at home and has a much better bench; foul trouble is a big concern for Miami's elite starting five. But I still think this is too many and I took the points.

Miami just claimed the championship in the Bahamas Tourney last week by beating a Kansas State side that reached the Elite 8 a year ago. Coach L’s latest foray into the portal seems to be working just fine, too, as ex-Florida State F Matthew Cleveland (17 ppg) has seamlessly adapted to his new surroundings, flourishing alongside an established, veteran crew of comrades with a familiar look to last year, with 6-5 jr. wing Wooga Poplar (18 ppg) having emerged as another dangerous scoring threat, while previous portal adds PG Nijel Pack and PF Norchad Omier give Larranaga four scorers tallying better than 15 ppg. John Calipari’s UK might still be a work in progress after being forced into OT against St. Joe’s. Play Miami

My simulations make this total 159. I like Kentucky's defense to keep Miami under 80 points. I'm on the Under.