San Diego State is one of the top defensive clubs in the country, but the Aztecs will meet their match in the Crimson Tide. Alabama is holding opponents to 32% shooting in the postseason after allowing 37% shooting the entire season, the third-best mark in the nation. Take Alabama to cover Friday.

On some level this is a variance play, as I think Alabama is either going to win by 10+ points or San Diego State is going to have a chance to win it in the game's final possessions. The Aztecs are not explosive offensively so if Alabama can build a lead I do not expect SDSU to be able to overcome that deficit. The Tide are also just as strong defensively as SDSU, and the team is coming off a defensive clinic against Maryland in the second round.

Our SportslineAI model has this game totaling at 143. San Diego State has done a great job on defense so far in this tournament but they haven't played a seed higher than 10 yet. Alabama will be a different type of game. Hear the full breakdown on Early Edge in 5 at 4pm ET.

This is a lot of points to lay to a team like San Diego State. The Aztecs have something that the Crimson Tide don't: experience. Matt Bradley is in his fifth year and he is playing great on both ends of the court. Brandon Miller is the best player on the court, but he has never played in a game like this. This game is going to be a rock fight. In a slow paced game, 7.5 points is way too much. Take the points with the experienced Aztecs.

Both teams play real defense. The Aztecs' defense is elite, which is why the total is relatively low. All the pressure is on Alabama. I try to keep it simple in the Sweet 16. I have this game power-rated closer to five points. I see value with the Aztecs in this spot. I love their coach too. Take the underdog.

Always shop around as I just played o134.5 which is a lot better than the 136's floating around at the moment. I think the opening number of 137 was far more appropriate, but we're seeing a ton of buying to the Under on many games after the hot start to the tournament. My simulations make this one 141 in a matchup with massive contrasting styles. Bama wants to play with a ton of pace while SDSU typically plays a little slower. Both teams play strong defense and will be able to generate turnovers that lead to points. Both teams are also quite strong at getting to the free throw line. This will be a highly competitive game that should see SDSU forced to play meaningfully above their average pace.