Midwest Region game from Birmingham. Auburn can't score much but Iowa can't defend much. I wouldn't leave my wallet around the rule-breaking Bruce Pearl, an Iowa assistant many years ago (who ironically accused rival Illinois of NCAA violations, which was true), but that dude can coach. Every team obviously is different, but Auburn is 3-0 in first-round games under him and Pearl lands a lot better class of talent than Fran McCaffrey does. It's all about Pearl scheming to slow Hawkeyes star Kris Murray. Playing about 110 miles from campus obviously doesn't hurt Auburn's chances, either.

The erratic Hawkeyes have at times looked like a Final Four contender, while at others they are incapable of beating the cellar of the Big Ten, as evidenced by season-ending losses to Nebraska and Ohio State. Even so, Auburn has plummeted down the stretch with losses in seven of its past 10. Iowa's edge in firepower should be the difference against a Tigers club that struggles to find consistent offense.

I think we get a high-scoring affair in the early game of the night session in Birmingham, with plenty of Auburn fans filling up the place to add energy to what should be an intense 8-9 game. Both of these teams were profitable to the over on the season as a whole and both have hit the over in 3 of their last 4 games heading into the tournament. Iowa had the fastest pace in the Big Ten, and while Auburn was less up-tempo than some SEC counterparts it did see its offense hit a new gear from an efficiency standpoint (other than the blowout loss at Kentucky) in the final six weeks of the season.

If I were an Iowa fan, I would be livid that despite being the higher seed, this game is being played two hours away from Auburn's campus in Birmingham. Hawkeyes coach Fran McCaffery is only 3-7 in the NCAA Tournament while his counterpart Bruce Pearl is 33-20. In addition to the home court advantage, Auburn plays stifling defense and I expect the Tigers to slow the game down as much as they can to prevent getting into a track meet. The NET Rankings have the Tigers seven spots higher and that solidifies my pick of the lower seed advancing in this matchup.

Iowa allowed 47% shooting for the season and 52% in its last five. The Hawkeyes closed out the regular season with a home loss to Nebraska as 12-point favorites. Auburn isn’t much better, but defends well allowing only 40% shooting. I’m siding with the better defense, Take Auburn to cover.

The Hawkeyes play a type of basketball that doesn't work in the Big Dance. They have a great offense but a terrible defense. The Hawkeyes are just 3-7 ATS in NCAA Tournament games under head coach Fran McCaffrey. On the other side, the Tigers play a style of game that works for this tournament. The Tigers are great defensively. The Tigers are well rounded with all five of their starters averaging at least eight points. The Tigers will be able to take advantage of the Hawkeyes terrible defense and win this game.