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I don't really care about this game and I'm not sure how much either side will, either, after watching St. Bonaventure go through the motions against Xavier on Tuesday. The Musketeers seem to have bonded since losing Paul Scruggs to a season-ending injury and since the firing of Coach Travis Steele. Jonas Hayes has done a great job as interim coach; probably deserves a full-time look if not for the school already hiring Sean Miller. A&M has looked dominant in this tournament but I simply think 5 points is too many to give. The SportsLine Projection Model has Xavier winning by two. Not sure I agree with that but it should be close either way. For what it's worth, Xavier is 2-0 vs. the SEC in this tournament.
In their respective NIT semifinal matchups on Tuesday, both Xavier and Texas A&M put together complete games. This will make the championship a true must-watch game. Prior to the championship, all matchups in the NIT were spaced out. Expect the two-day turnaround to give the advantage to the Aggies as they continue their strong defensive effort in the NIT. Buy the hook and purchase Texas A&M -4.
Snubbed by the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee, the Aggies (27-12) have won all four of their NIT games by at least a dozen points. They're playing with incredible defensive intensity, forcing more than 16 turnovers per game in this tourney and for the season overall. Xavier made an admirable run to the final under an interim coach and without senior guard Paul Scruggs. And the Musketeers are comfortable in Madison Square Garden, as they have experience playing there from the Big East Tournament. But I'll back the Aggies to cap off in style a late-season run that's seen them win 11 of 12.
There might just be too much hype on the Aggies right now, so let's go against it. I like this game to be low scoring, so on principle I think that gives an edge to taking the points before even fading the recency bias. My model also has this game incorrectly priced by the books, I make Xavier just a 2 point underdog today. They have a strong offensive team that effectively scores the ball without relying on the 3pt shot. They do not make many unforced errors, which should limit transition buckets for the Aggies, and maybe most importantly they get to the Free Throw line with good frequency while not fouling too much on the defensive end. I'll grab the points in a championship game that I like to be called in such a way that it remains close and exciting.
Championship game with a total above 135? Merry Christmas everyone! The only way this game reaches this mark is through overtime, in my opinion. So go grab a nice +1000 sprinkle on this game to go to OT and play the Under. The Aggies are now on a 7 game streak of limiting opponents to 65 points or less, and I think Xavier is due for a bit of regression after hot shooting against SBU. This will be one of the toughest defenses that Xavier has played all season and I like the Aggies to slow it down. We saw last game had 8 points in the final 6min for A&M vs WSU, with lock down ability like that I think the Under has to be the call.