No. 15 Oral Roberts vs. No. 3 Arkansas in South Region. I think Larry Hartstein and I were both waiting for this spread to get back over 11 points to make our pick. As he noted, the Golden Eagles were up 10 at the half in Fayetteville on Dec. 20 before being blitzed in the second half and losing by 11. ORU will thus feel confident it can hang with the Hogs, and having the entire week to prepare for that Arkansas pressure defense helps as opposed to just 24 hours if this matchup was in the Elite Eight. While I don't give national scoring leader Max Abmas, fellow star Kevin Obanor and Oral Roberts much chance to win, it leads the nation in free-throw percentage and is 12th in three-point percentage. That's enough for a cover.

The Golden Eagles led Arkansas at the half 40-30 on Dec. 20 in Fayetteville. They ultimately lost by 11 as Max Abmas, the nation's leading scorer, scored 11 on 4-of-11 shooting. Abmas only played 33 minutes that night. Now he never comes off the floor, and the same goes for Kevin Obanor. The Golden Eagles didn't go back to campus -- all the teams stayed in Indiana -- so they're not getting caught up in their Cinderella story like previous double-digit seeds that made the Sweet 16. They're also playing better defense now than they did in the regular season. Grab the points.

Oral Roberts has been great in the tournament, but I think the run comes to a close against Arkansas. Both of these teams enjoy playing with a quicker than average pace, but that's where the similarities end. Playing with pace is fine if you have the defensive efficiency to back it up. Oral Roberts rates 172nd in defensive efficiency, leaving them with a very difficult task. This game might be close for 35 minutes, but my simulations suggest Arkansas (-14.8) should pull away and cover this number.