It’s important to know going into this game that the Colts are a good team that has not played up to their potential through two weeks. Beyond general Week 1 issues, both of Indianapolis’ key pass catchers were out in Week 2 – and both are back for this game. There’s still a good chance this Colts team wins the division, and their turnaround could well start Sunday. However, they are running into the buzzsaw that is Patrick Mahomes and this Chiefs team -- both offense and defense. While this line exploded and nearly reached a touchdown, it is back to reality at a point where we can buy Kansas City. The Colts are one of four NFL teams Mahomes has never beaten, but that changes Sunday. If this was in a few weeks, I might be on Indy, but this week we ride with KC. See if you can get -4 before kickoff.

The best of this number has evaporated but this is still a take on a home underdog in a favorable spot. Given their dismal showing last week, the Colts will be a strong public fade against the Chiefs. But a desperate Indy club should stay in this game behind the power running of Jonathan Taylor and the outcome should fall on a low key number. Take the points.

Love getting this line at under a touchdown. The Colts look terrible while the Chiefs don't seem to miss Tyreek Hill as they have ran through their first two opponents. The Colts got shut out by the Jaguars last week. The Chiefs have an extended break after playing last Thursday. This game should be a two possession win for the Chiefs. Lay the points.

The Colts look like the worst team in the league coming off a shutout loss to the Jaguars, but that just means we get to buy this team at its absolute nadir. With Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce back at practice, the Colts receiver corps should be in a much better state this week. Ideally we'll have Shaq Leonard back for this game as well after he practiced in full last week. The Chiefs offense absolutely rolled in Week 1 but didn't play at that same level against the Chargers, with a 99-yard pick-six contributing to the win. Maybe they can get another here with the state of Matt Ryan, but I think with the massive move off the -3 lookahead and the Colts already in desperation mode for their home opener, this game will be tighter than people expect.