Sometimes I am asked why I pick the moneyline often on NBA favorites instead of spreads. See Wednesday's West two games for the reason why -- I would have pushed and lost backing the favorites on the spread but instead went 2-0 on the ML. Home teams are 4-0 in these play-in games SU. Wizards star Bradley Beal isn't 100 percent, but the Pacers have a handful of banged-up guys and no Caris LeVert. Washington is also unbeaten ATS in its past eight following a loss. I'm still going moneyline, though. A lot of people are overreacting to Indiana's blowout of a slumping Charlotte team on Tuesday.

The pressure is on the Washington Wizards to clinch the eighth seed against the Indiana Pacers. Washington’s impressive late-season run featured a 20-game stretch in which they went 15-5, with all losses by four points or less. That posed value in their 118-100 loss to Boston, and is a double-down variable Thursday. Take the Pacers.

This looks like a high number, but both of these teams are going to run it fast even though Washington has stayed Under in its last four. The Pacers have accelerated tempo lately on an already-fast team. They’ve gone Over in their last four and 11 of their last 14. The Pacers' three meetings with Washington this season have all gone way Over: 132-133, 141-154 and 124-132, all Wizards wins. Over is the top play Thursday.

The Wizards appear to be at the end of the line. Their impressive late-season surge predictably hit a flat spot Tuesday against the Celtics. Notoriously cantankerous star Russell Westbrook checked out early and it will come as no surprise if he gives another lackluster performance Thursday. Moreover, an ailing Bradley Beal struggled, with 22 points on 10-of-25 shooting. Conversely, the Pacers have discovered they are at their best at a torrid place and had seven players in double figures against Charlotte despite the absence of standout Caris LeVert. Domantas Sabonis should provide a serious matchup issue as the Pacers make their way into the real playoff bracket.