Tampa Bay is on a back-to-back tonight, losing to Toronto 6-5 yesterday. In the last 10 such instances of the Lightning playing their second game in as many nights, they've lost each game. Not only do they lose, they lose convincingly, with an average margin of defeat of 3.0 goals. Montreal is 4-2 at home this year and beat Tampa Bay in their last meeting. This is a .5u bet for me, because on paper, the Lightning look good for goals.

We faded the Lightning tonight in Toronto with their No. 1 goaltender starting, meaning it almost surely will be No. 2 Matt Tomkins here and there's a reason the 29-year-old never played in the NHL until this year. He is 0-2 with a 3.61 GAA and .891 SV. And nothing good can happen to the other Lightning players tonight against the rival Leafs. Montreal winning outright is actually tempting here.