The Dolphins have every reason to score 30+ Sunday. Not only being back home but also coming off a tough loss to Philadelphia, coupled with facing a division opponent in the Patriots. In three games at home this season Miami has averaged 47.7 PPG, 558 YPG and has outscored said three opponents by a total of 86 points. All in.

Pats overall Run D #s are great but when you dig deep you see why this is bad match-up. NE is 4th in NFL vs Outside Zone, which is what people think of in the Shanahan/McDaniel run game. But Pats are 24th in NFL vs Inside Zone (4.6/carry). MIA called 5 IZ runs for 66 yds and 2 TDS in 1st meeting this year. Mostert 18-121 in that game. Banking on ankle being fine. He avg 8.8/carry on IZ runs this season. MIA avg 9.7/IZ run as a team. Will gut that defense over 4 qtrs on an 85-degree day. Could parlay with TD prop (low value now -200 as standalone)

The Dolphins offense looked pretty pedestrian in the loss to the Eagles, which featured their lowest yardage total of the season by 145 yards. That previous "low" of 389 yards came against the Patriots in Foxborough, but I struggle to see New England having the same success with Christian Gonzalez sidelined. The Patriots only had to play from behind in the final two minutes last week, and I expect the Dolphins will put them in a worse spot this week and force mistakes from Mac Jones. The lookahead was Dolphins -13, which was closer to right than this line.