The Buccaneers have played the bully role to perfection, going 6-1 straight up and against the spread when favored by at least nine points. The Under is 4-3 in those games while the Over is 3-2 in their home contests. Tampa Bay has scored 30-plus points in each of its last four games overall and averaged 37.5 at home, where the Over is 4-2. Saints QB Taysom Hill has had a few starts to shake off the rust and should have a nice game against Tampa Bay's beat-up defense. Hill has passed for 439 yards and rushed for 174 in his two starts. New Orleans' defense also is beat up and now resembles a slightly below-average unit.

New Orleans is 6-1 ATS in the past seven meetings with the Bucs and has won five straight regular-season meetings. Tampa Bay's No. 1 run defense has had some trouble with mobile quarterbacks, and the model projects Taysom Hill to rush for more than 50 yards. It also has the Saints losing by a touchdown, covering the spread in 61 percent of simulations.

Everyone knows you can't run on the Buccaneers, who have seen the fewest number of rushing attempts in the league. But the Bucs rank 21st in yards per rush allowed, and they've had some trouble handling running quarterbacks like Josh Allen, who just topped 100 yards on the ground against this defense. They also had trouble with Taysom Hill the last time they faced him, which came in a limited role in the Saints' blowout win last year. With Alvin Kamara back in the fold, I like the odds of Sean Payton keeping this game much closer than expected in a matchup where he's had recent success, especially in a game the Saints need much more than the Bucs.