Both teams have concerns in the secondary with Jacksonville starting a rookie at one corner following the trade of CJ Henderson to Carolina, and Cincinnati down a starting corner and safety. Really, this comes down to whether the Jags can score at least 20 points. They are almost surely going to allow at least 27 because they have in 16 of their past 18. Jacksonville does lead the NFL in pace of play and Trevor Lawrence is due a breakout game. This will be his lone chance to be on the national stage in 2021. We'll lean Over on a perfect weather night.

I think Jacksonville QB Trevor Lawrence’s fourth NFL start will produce better results for him. I also believe Bengals QB Joe Burrow will put up plenty of points as he continues to connect with WR Ja’Marr Chase, who has four touchdown receptions in his first three career games. Both teams have gone Over just once this season, but the weather is perfect with no wind expected in Cincinnati. Both teams will let it fly. The Over is the play.

The Jaguars have lost their three games by an average of 12.7 points. They have committed nine turnovers already. The Bengals looked really good against the Steelers last week, winning by 14 and only allowing 10 points. Against Jacksonville last season, Joe Mixon exploded for 151 yards and two touchdowns on the ground. Lay the points.