The Clips might want to start playing a bit earlier than they did on Saturday, when falling behind by as many as 22 early in the 4th Q before a whirlwind rally got them the lead in the last minute, only to fall agonizingly short in the end. Some of the dynamics that got LA the lead in the series, however, figure to come in handy once again on the road. With Russell Westbrook's status still iffy, the Denver bench contributions have been almost non-existent the past two games (just ten points total), and the Nuggets were visibly tired in the 4th Q on Saturday when LA rallied. The Clips have won in Denver and can do so again. Play Clippers on Money Line

Even though the model favors the Clippers to win, the better ML value is on Denver at +110. Obviously this is NOT a high value pick. James Harden has shot the ball just fine this series with 45.3% from the field and 40% from 3pt range. He is projected for a solid 43% from the field and 36.5% from 3pt range in this one. But the Harden I know is the one who just has an all-time bad shooting night when his team needs him to show up. This bet is on Harden to struggle like only he can when it matters most. If Harden goes 4 for 16 instead of the projected 7 for 16, Denver should win.

The Nuggets struggles at home date back to the postseason a year ago, when the Wolves took 3 of 4. It's been an acute issue the last two months, and I'm not going to worry about the two points here. Denver is 2-14 ATS in its last 16 home games and 2-14 ATS at home vs non-play-in, playoff teams this season. Again, I can win by one and win this bet, though I suspect the Clippers cover anyway. LA is about 3 plays away from sweeping this series. Joker and Jamal Murray average 42 min/G, while Christian Braun and Aaron Gordon are playing 40/G. LAC are deeper and fresher.