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The Heat give up the second-most rebounds to opposing centers (17.04 per game). Pelicans rookie Yves Missi averaged 30.8 minutes and 10.0 rebounds in December. Backup center Daniel Theis is 32 and averaged under 14 minutes last month. Even though this is the second night of back-to-back for New Orleans, I like Missi to reach double figures in rebounds for the first time in six games.
Trey Murphy has been one of the few bright spots for the pitiful Pelicans who are a league worst 5-28 having lost 10 straight games and 19 of their last 20 games, yikes. Murphy had a great month of December however this is a hefty combo line having failed to eclipse 29 PRA in 12/20 appearances this season. I would also consider this a difficult matchup considering Miami is 10th in Defensive Efficiency, in addition to play at the 4th slowest pace. Furthermore, Miami are 8.5 point favorites which provides us with some blowout potential. I'd play this down to 27.5.
I swear at some point we're going to shed a ridiculous run of weird stuff and win an NBA O/U again. We rode them in second half last season. Pels are so bad, and are over in 5 of last 6 and 9 of last 12; those 12 games average 235 points. When the total is between 221-223.5, Pels are 6-3 to over. MIA has major issues, but should be able to score at will on this bunch. MIA is 6-3 over when total is 221-224. Heat are over this total in 7 of last 12 at home despite being an under team for the most part this month.