The Celtics have won 16 of their last 17 games against the Grizzlies, and Jayson Tatum has literally never lost to them in his career (13-0). This can't continue for much longer. Memphis is too good, and in this case, getting too many points.

The Grizz are a covering machine and are doing it home and road. People seem to keep underestimating them, including Vegas. They have lost one time by more than 5 points since Oct. 30. They are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 and 15-5 ATS outside their division. A year ago the Celtics made it their cause to smash huge numbers as a favorite at home. No longer. They champs are 4-8 ATS as a home favorite and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games and 2-9 ATS In their last 11 at home. Grizz are a balanced outfit, they are 6th in the NBA in road +/_ and 2nd in the NBA averaging 122 points away from home. They can keep this plenty close.

Memphis' Jaren Jackson Jr. is an excellent defender, but the Unicorn has topped this easily in three straight games and he'll be the most rested Boston player getting Friday night's win over Milwaukee off. Our model has Kristaps Porzingis at 19.7 points. NumberFire has him at 18.3. I'm guessing Al Horford gets the second of a B2B off, so in theory that might mean more minutes for Porzingis. I certainly don't expect a blowout here.