The backdoor cover gives me pause, but BOS was an elite first half team at home all season, they have been grabbing hold of these games against the wounded Heat quickly and I project them to take a double-digit lead into the half. Porzingis wasn't scoring much anyway, and Al Horford will help defensively against Bam. Boston smells blood and the Heat's injuries are chronic and outside of a flurry in Game 2 they haven't shot nearly good enough from the outside to trouble the Celtics

Season trends go out the window here. There are only so many players left on Miami's roster who can score the basketball. He only played 16 minutes in Game 4 and had 3 points, but aside from that he's eclipsed this over in every other game. He should see at least 25 minutes tonight, and in that case the over is 10-4. The Sportsline Model makes the number 11.

Let's talk about guys who will stay on the court. I'll be the first to admit I'm not entirely sure how this game script will play out, so I'm looking to guys who I know will be on the court regardless. The Miami injuries are adding up with Jaime Jaquez now out and Duncan Robinson still limited. Highsmith is in line for at least 25 minutes here. He's eclipsed this number in both games this series he played 26+ minutes.

This is a huge number for Bam who has only eclipsed this line in 1/4 games of this series, despite playing nearly 40 MPG in the playoffs. Adeabyo has played well but the Heat are simply overmatched and without Jimmy Butler there is just a massive disparity in talent between these teams and it is simply too much for Miami to overcome. Boston stewed over their first round loss to Miami last season and I believe will be highly motivated to take care of business and complete the gentleman's sweep of the Heat.

We've seen this before, as this series is sequencing almost identical to the Heat's Finals matchup last June vs. Denver, when Miami was a similar underdog and stole Game 2 on the road, before getting easily outdistanced at home in Games 3 and 4...much like this series vs. the Celtics. Minus Jimmy Butler and apparently Terry Rozier for another game, the Heat aren't built to win any shootouts at the moment. Miami has only cleared 94 once in this series, and that came when hitting 23 triples in Game 2, and Games 3 and 4 couldn't clear 190. It was only 94-89 in Nuggets-Heat Game 5 last June, too. Play Heat-Celtics "Under"