The Celtics have been great bouncing back from a loss. In fact, they have not lost consecutive games since March. I think that trend finally ends here. The Warriors regained homecourt advantage with their big win in Game 4, and Stephen Curry is shooting 49.0 percent from behind the arc in the series. They know they can’t afford to drop this game and give the Celtics a chance to close things out in Boston, so look for them to come out hot, and win in convincing fashion.

My model says the Warriors cover the spread in more than 60 percent of the simulations, so you're getting strong value with them at this number. Golden State has gone 5-1 against the spread in its last six home games. After losing the series opener at home by 12 points, the Warriors bounced back with a 19-point victory in Game 2. Stephen Curry is coming off a 43-point performance in which he was 14-for-26 from the field and scored 14 points in the third quarter. Take the Warriors to cover.

I am taking time off. But since no one else will pick the game clearly I have to (really?). You have to give me a reason not to pick the home team. Yes, Boston is unbeaten after a loss in these playoffs. But look at who (whom? I'll let Creed from the Office decide) those wins were against and where. I lost going against the Dubs after a loss trend in Game 4 but if you tell me that Boston is up 4 or whatever it was with seven minutes left I am fine with it. It's like the latest Jurassic Park movie. I just have to even knowing it is stupid.